Case study

IIFLCAPS

IIFL Securities

Worth a closer look1y model +10.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

IIFL Securities (IIFLCAPS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is IIFLCAPS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

IIFL Securities (IIFLCAPS) trades at ₹346,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100.

On the numbers, IIFL Securities (IIFLCAPS) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.2× earnings, ROE of 20.2%, a 57% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

IIFLCAPS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹10,776 Cr
Current price
₹346
P/E ratio
19.2×
P/B ratio
3.52×
Book value
₹98
Dividend yield
0.87%
ROCE
23.2%
ROE
20.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is IIFLCAPS overvalued? IIFLCAPS P/E vs its sector

IIFLCAPS's P/E of 19.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.87% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

IIFLCAPS P/E
19.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
IIFLCAPS div yield
0.87%
Peer median yield
1.65%

IIFLCAPS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of IIFLCAPS history (22%/yr drift, 54%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
IIFLCAPS 2027₹190₹380₹762+10%
IIFLCAPS 2028₹156₹404₹1,074+17%
IIFLCAPS 2029₹134₹447₹1,448+30%
IIFLCAPS 2030₹121₹484₹1,876+41%
IIFLCAPS 2031₹112₹525₹2,460+53%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability IIFLCAPS goes up, or doubles?

57%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
64%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
41%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹689 within 5 years

The bull case for IIFLCAPS

  • A 19.2× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • High return on equity (20.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (23.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,448.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (54%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹134.

IIFLCAPS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years IIFLCAPS compounded at 22%/year with annualized volatility of 54%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹190₹762, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

IIFLCAPS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
10.4%
80% range₹190–₹762
P(price ↑)57%
P(price 2×)14%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
29.7%
80% range₹134–₹1,448
P(price ↑)61%
P(price 2×)32%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
52.5%
80% range₹112–₹2,460
P(price ↑)64%
P(price 2×)41%

IIFLCAPS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
IIFLCAPS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds IIFLCAPS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the IIFLCAPS price target & forecast page.

IIFLCAPS Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IIFLCAPS scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

IIFLCAPS MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IIFLCAPS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST37.9%2.6×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST37.9%2.6×

Compare every broker on the IIFLCAPS MTF page.

IIFLCAPS vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
IIFLCAPS (this stock)19.2×0.87%₹10,776 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About IIFL Securities: sector, index & market-cap context

IIFL Securities (IIFLCAPS) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹10,776 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the IIFLCAPS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of IIFL Securities's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

IIFLCAPS analysis, FAQs

Is IIFL Securities (IIFLCAPS) a good buy?

On the numbers, IIFL Securities (IIFLCAPS) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.2× earnings, ROE of 20.2%, a 57% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is IIFLCAPS overvalued or undervalued?

IIFLCAPS trades at 19.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the IIFLCAPS share price target for 2031?

IIFLCAPS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹525, with an 80% range of ₹112₹2,460 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability IIFLCAPS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of IIFLCAPS reaching ₹689 (2×) within 5 years is 41%.

What is the bull case for IIFLCAPS?

A 19.2× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (20.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (23.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in IIFLCAPS?

High historical volatility (54%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on IIFLCAPS