Case study

IMFA

Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys

Worth a closer look1y model +23.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys (IMFA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is IMFA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys (IMFA) trades at ₹1,430,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100.

On the numbers, Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys (IMFA) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.2× earnings, ROE of 16.8%, a 68% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

IMFA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹7,711 Cr
Current price
₹1,430
P/E ratio
18.2×
P/B ratio
2.84×
Book value
₹504
Dividend yield
0.87%
ROCE
18.3%
ROE
16.8%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is IMFA overvalued? IMFA P/E vs its sector

IMFA's P/E of 18.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.87% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

IMFA P/E
18.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
IMFA div yield
0.87%
Peer median yield
1.65%

IMFA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of IMFA history (31%/yr drift, 46%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
IMFA 2027₹971₹1,766₹3,176+24%
IMFA 2028₹932₹2,175₹4,895+52%
IMFA 2029₹955₹2,645₹7,240+85%
IMFA 2030₹979₹3,265₹10,412+128%
IMFA 2031₹1,052₹3,989₹14,685+179%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability IMFA goes up, or doubles?

68%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
84%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
62%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,858 within 5 years

The bull case for IMFA

  • A 18.2× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A healthy 16.8% return on equity.
  • Strong ROCE (18.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 68% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,766 (+24%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹7,240.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹955.

IMFA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years IMFA compounded at 31%/year with annualized volatility of 46%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹971₹3,176, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

IMFA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
23.6%
80% range₹971–₹3,176
P(price ↑)68%
P(price 2×)15%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
85.1%
80% range₹955–₹7,240
P(price ↑)78%
P(price 2×)46%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
179.1%
80% range₹1,052–₹14,685
P(price ↑)84%
P(price 2×)62%

IMFA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
IMFA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds IMFA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the IMFA price target & forecast page.

IMFA Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IMFA scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

IMFA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IMFA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST37.9%2.6×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST37.9%2.6×
DhanCHEAPEST37.9%2.6×

Compare every broker on the IMFA MTF page.

IMFA vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
IMFA (this stock)18.2×0.87%₹7,711 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys: sector, index & market-cap context

Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys (IMFA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹7,711 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the IMFA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

IMFA analysis, FAQs

Is Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys (IMFA) a good buy?

On the numbers, Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys (IMFA) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.2× earnings, ROE of 16.8%, a 68% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is IMFA overvalued or undervalued?

IMFA trades at 18.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the IMFA share price target for 2031?

IMFA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹3,989, with an 80% range of ₹1,052₹14,685 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability IMFA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of IMFA reaching ₹2,858 (2×) within 5 years is 62%.

What is the bull case for IMFA?

A 18.2× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 16.8% return on equity. Strong ROCE (18.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in IMFA?

High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on IMFA