Case study

INDIACEM

The India Cements

Tread carefully1y model +18.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

The India Cements (INDIACEM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is INDIACEM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

The India Cements (INDIACEM) trades at ₹378,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, The India Cements (INDIACEM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 147.0× earnings, ROE of 0.8%, a 67% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

INDIACEM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹11,703 Cr
Current price
₹378
P/E ratio
147.0×
P/B ratio
1.16×
Book value
₹327
ROCE
1.6%
ROE
0.8%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is INDIACEM overvalued? INDIACEM P/E vs its sector

INDIACEM's P/E of 147.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

INDIACEM P/E
147.0×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
Peer median yield
1.66%

INDIACEM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of INDIACEM history (24%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
INDIACEM 2027₹277₹443₹707+18%
INDIACEM 2028₹273₹528₹1,020+41%
INDIACEM 2029₹282₹624₹1,411+66%
INDIACEM 2030₹295₹749₹1,902+100%
INDIACEM 2031₹314₹881₹2,485+135%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability INDIACEM goes up, or doubles?

67%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
86%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
58%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹750 within 5 years

The bull case for INDIACEM

  • Low price-to-book of 1.16×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 67% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹443 (+18%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,411.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 147.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Return on equity is a soft 0.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹282.

INDIACEM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years INDIACEM compounded at 24%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹277₹707, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

INDIACEM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
18.3%
80% range₹277–₹707
P(price ↑)67%
P(price 2×)7%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
66.5%
80% range₹282–₹1,411
P(price ↑)79%
P(price 2×)38%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
135.1%
80% range₹314–₹2,485
P(price ↑)86%
P(price 2×)58%

INDIACEM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
INDIACEM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds INDIACEM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the INDIACEM price target & forecast page.

INDIACEM Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. INDIACEM scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

INDIACEM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy INDIACEM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST32.2%3.1×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST32.2%3.1×
DhanCHEAPEST32.2%3.1×

Compare every broker on the INDIACEM MTF page.

Which ace investors hold INDIACEM?

Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):

INDIACEM vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
INDIACEM (this stock)147.0×₹11,703 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About The India Cements: sector, index & market-cap context

The India Cements (INDIACEM) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹11,703 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the INDIACEM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of The India Cements's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

INDIACEM analysis, FAQs

Is The India Cements (INDIACEM) a good buy?

On the numbers, The India Cements (INDIACEM) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 147.0× earnings, ROE of 0.8%, a 67% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is INDIACEM overvalued or undervalued?

INDIACEM trades at 147.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the INDIACEM share price target for 2031?

INDIACEM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹881, with an 80% range of ₹314₹2,485 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability INDIACEM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of INDIACEM reaching ₹750 (2×) within 5 years is 58%.

What is the bull case for INDIACEM?

Low price-to-book of 1.16×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 67% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹443 (+18%).

What are the risks in INDIACEM?

A rich 147.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 0.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.

More on INDIACEM