INDIGO
Interglobe Aviation
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is INDIGO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO) trades at ₹5,021,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100.
On the numbers, Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100, weighing expensive at 180.0× earnings, ROE of -12.2%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
INDIGO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is INDIGO overvalued? INDIGO P/E vs its Aviation
INDIGO's P/E of 180.0× sits above the Aviation peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.20% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
INDIGO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of INDIGO history (8%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDIGO 2027 | ₹3,501 | ₹5,160 | ₹7,664 | +3% |
| INDIGO 2028 | ₹3,059 | ₹5,306 | ₹9,347 | +6% |
| INDIGO 2029 | ₹2,791 | ₹5,455 | ₹10,878 | +9% |
| INDIGO 2030 | ₹2,592 | ₹5,660 | ₹12,420 | +13% |
| INDIGO 2031 | ₹2,418 | ₹5,849 | ₹14,120 | +16% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability INDIGO goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for INDIGO
- Interglobe Aviation is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹10,878.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 180.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 27.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,791.
INDIGO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years INDIGO compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹3,501–₹7,664, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
INDIGO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
INDIGO price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds INDIGO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the INDIGO price target & forecast page.
INDIGO Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. INDIGO scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
INDIGO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy INDIGO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 31.0% | 3.2× |
| Zerodha | 26.4% | 3.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 25.0% | 4.0× |
Compare every broker on the INDIGO MTF page.
INDIGO vs peers,Aviation comparison
About Interglobe Aviation: sector, index & market-cap context
Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Aviation sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.94L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the INDIGO Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Interglobe Aviation's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
INDIGO analysis, FAQs
Is Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO) a good buy?
On the numbers, Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 30/100, weighing expensive at 180.0× earnings, ROE of -12.2%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is INDIGO overvalued or undervalued?
INDIGO trades at 180.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its Aviation peers.
What is the INDIGO share price target for 2031?
INDIGO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹5,849, with an 80% range of ₹2,418–₹14,120 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability INDIGO doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of INDIGO reaching ₹10,043 (2×) within 5 years is 22%.
What is the bull case for INDIGO?
Interglobe Aviation is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in INDIGO?
A rich 180.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 27.9× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.