Case study

INNOVANA

INNOVANA

Mixed signals1y model -0.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

52Score

INNOVANA (INNOVANA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is INNOVANA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

INNOVANA (INNOVANA) trades at ₹330,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.

On the numbers, INNOVANA (INNOVANA) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.9× earnings, ROE of 16.0%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

INNOVANA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹682 Cr
Current price
₹330
P/E ratio
17.9×
P/B ratio
2.50×
Book value
₹132
ROCE
16.4%
ROE
16.0%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How INNOVANA ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is INNOVANA overvalued? INNOVANA P/E vs peers

INNOVANA trades at 17.9× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

INNOVANA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 8.5y of INNOVANA history (35%/yr drift, 52%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
INNOVANA 2027₹170₹329₹636-0%
INNOVANA 2028₹126₹328₹852-1%
INNOVANA 2029₹100₹327₹1,066-1%
INNOVANA 2030₹85₹326₹1,246-1%
INNOVANA 2031₹72₹325₹1,471-2%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability INNOVANA goes up, or doubles?

50%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
49%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹660 within 5 years

The bull case for INNOVANA

  • INNOVANA's P/E of 17.9x is lower than 67% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • INNOVANA's return on equity of 16.0% ranks in the 75th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,066.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (52%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹100.

INNOVANA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 8.5 years INNOVANA compounded at 35%/year with annualized volatility of 52%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹170-₹636, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

INNOVANA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 8.5 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
0.3%
80% range₹170-₹636
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)9%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
1.0%
80% range₹100-₹1,066
P(price ↑)49%
P(price 2×)22%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
1.6%
80% range₹72-₹1,471
P(price ↑)49%
P(price 2×)27%

INNOVANA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
INNOVANA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds INNOVANA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the INNOVANA price target & forecast page.

INNOVANA Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. INNOVANA scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

INNOVANA MTF margin & leverage across 1 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy INNOVANA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 1 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Share IndiaCHEAPEST36.03%2.8×

Compare every broker on the INNOVANA MTF page.

About INNOVANA: sector, index & market-cap context

INNOVANA (INNOVANA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹682 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the INNOVANA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of INNOVANA's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

INNOVANA analysis, FAQs

Is INNOVANA (INNOVANA) a good buy?

On the numbers, INNOVANA (INNOVANA) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.9× earnings, ROE of 16.0%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is INNOVANA overvalued or undervalued?

INNOVANA trades at 17.9× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the INNOVANA share price target for 2031?

INNOVANA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹325, with an 80% range of ₹72-₹1,471 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability INNOVANA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of INNOVANA reaching ₹660 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for INNOVANA?

INNOVANA's P/E of 17.9x is lower than 67% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. INNOVANA's return on equity of 16.0% ranks in the 75th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in INNOVANA?

High historical volatility (52%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on INNOVANA