Case study

IRCON

Ircon International Limited

Mixed signals1y model +0.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

49Score

Ircon International Limited (IRCON) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is IRCON a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Ircon International Limited (IRCON) trades at ₹131,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100.

On the numbers, Ircon International Limited (IRCON) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.7× earnings, ROE of 9.2%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

IRCON fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹12,344 Cr
Current price
₹131
P/E ratio
20.7×
P/B ratio
1.86×
Book value
₹71
Dividend yield
0.91%
ROCE
9.7%
ROE
9.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How IRCON ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is IRCON overvalued? IRCON P/E vs peers

IRCON trades at 20.7× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

IRCON share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 7.7y of IRCON history (15%/yr drift, 44%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
IRCON 2027₹77₹132₹228+1%
IRCON 2028₹60₹133₹293+1%
IRCON 2029₹51₹134₹349+2%
IRCON 2030₹43₹134₹417+2%
IRCON 2031₹38₹135₹481+3%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability IRCON goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
51%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹263 within 5 years

The bull case for IRCON

  • IRCON's P/E of 20.7x is lower than 61% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹349.

The bear case & risks

  • IRCON's return on equity of 9.2% ranks in the 44th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹51.

IRCON volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 7.7 years IRCON compounded at 15%/year with annualized volatility of 44%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹77-₹228, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

IRCON price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 7.7 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
0.6%
80% range₹77-₹228
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
1.8%
80% range₹51-₹349
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)19%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
3.0%
80% range₹38-₹481
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)25%

IRCON price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
IRCON simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds IRCON hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the IRCON price target & forecast page.

IRCON Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. IRCON scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

IRCON MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IRCON with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox34.84%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST34.80%2.9×
Groww60.00%1.7×
DhanCHEAPEST34.80%2.9×
Kotak Neo34.84%2.9×
Paytm Money36.04%2.8×
Pocketful35.39%2.8×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST34.80%2.9×
Bajaj Broking40.00%2.5×
Share India34.98%2.9×

Compare every broker on the IRCON MTF page.

About Ircon International Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Ircon International Limited (IRCON) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹12,344 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the IRCON Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Ircon International Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

IRCON analysis, FAQs

Is Ircon International Limited (IRCON) a good buy?

On the numbers, Ircon International Limited (IRCON) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.7× earnings, ROE of 9.2%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is IRCON overvalued or undervalued?

IRCON trades at 20.7× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the IRCON share price target for 2031?

IRCON's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹135, with an 80% range of ₹38-₹481 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability IRCON doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of IRCON reaching ₹263 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for IRCON?

IRCON's P/E of 20.7x is lower than 61% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in IRCON?

IRCON's return on equity of 9.2% ranks in the 44th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on IRCON