IRCTC
Indian Railway Tourism Corp
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Indian Railway Tourism Corp (IRCTC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is IRCTC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Indian Railway Tourism Corp (IRCTC) trades at ₹522,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100.
On the numbers, Indian Railway Tourism Corp (IRCTC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing premium at 30.2× earnings, ROE of 34.6%, a 6% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
IRCTC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is IRCTC overvalued? IRCTC P/E vs its Services
IRCTC's P/E of 30.2× sits above the Services peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.63% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
IRCTC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of IRCTC history (-34%/yr drift, 24%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRCTC 2027 | ₹266 | ₹360 | ₹489 | -31% |
| IRCTC 2028 | ₹163 | ₹251 | ₹385 | -52% |
| IRCTC 2029 | ₹102 | ₹174 | ₹293 | -67% |
| IRCTC 2030 | ₹65 | ₹119 | ₹221 | -77% |
| IRCTC 2031 | ₹42 | ₹84 | ₹163 | -84% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability IRCTC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for IRCTC
- High return on equity (34.6%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (46.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Relatively low volatility (24%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹293.
The bear case & risks
- At 30.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- A steep 9.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 6% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹102.
IRCTC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years IRCTC compounded at -34%/year with annualized volatility of 24%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹266–₹489, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
IRCTC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
IRCTC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds IRCTC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the IRCTC price target & forecast page.
IRCTC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IRCTC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
IRCTC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IRCTC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 27.5% | 3.6× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 27.5% | 3.6× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 27.5% | 3.6× |
Compare every broker on the IRCTC MTF page.
IRCTC vs peers,Services comparison
About Indian Railway Tourism Corp: sector, index & market-cap context
Indian Railway Tourism Corp (IRCTC) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Services sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹41,744 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the IRCTC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Indian Railway Tourism Corp's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
IRCTC analysis, FAQs
Is Indian Railway Tourism Corp (IRCTC) a good buy?
On the numbers, Indian Railway Tourism Corp (IRCTC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing premium at 30.2× earnings, ROE of 34.6%, a 6% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is IRCTC overvalued or undervalued?
IRCTC trades at 30.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its Services peers.
What is the IRCTC share price target for 2031?
IRCTC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹84, with an 80% range of ₹42–₹163 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability IRCTC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of IRCTC reaching ₹1,039 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for IRCTC?
High return on equity (34.6%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (46.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. Relatively low volatility (24%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
What are the risks in IRCTC?
At 30.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. A steep 9.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 6% chance of finishing above today's price.