IRCTC
Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited (IRCTC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is IRCTC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited (IRCTC) trades at ₹520,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 69/100.
On the numbers, Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited (IRCTC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 69/100, weighing premium at 30.1× earnings, ROE of 34.6%, a 64% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
IRCTC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How IRCTC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- IRCTC's market cap of 41,596 Cr ranks in the 90th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IRCTC's book value of ₹54 ranks in the 35th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IRCTC's promoter holding of 62.4% ranks in the 57th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IRCTC's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 12.0% ranks in the 45th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IRCTC's 3-year revenue growth of 14.0% ranks in the 60th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IRCTC's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02x is lower than 94% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is IRCTC overvalued? IRCTC P/E vs peers
IRCTC trades at 30.1× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
IRCTC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 6.7y of IRCTC history (19%/yr drift, 24%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRCTC 2027 | ₹419 | ₹565 | ₹760 | +9% |
| IRCTC 2028 | ₹398 | ₹613 | ₹944 | +18% |
| IRCTC 2029 | ₹395 | ₹665 | ₹1,122 | +28% |
| IRCTC 2030 | ₹397 | ₹722 | ₹1,316 | +39% |
| IRCTC 2031 | ₹398 | ₹784 | ₹1,545 | +51% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability IRCTC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for IRCTC
- IRCTC's return on equity of 34.6% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- IRCTC's return on capital employed of 46.1% ranks in the top 2% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 64% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹565 (+9%).
- Relatively low volatility (24%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,122.
The bear case & risks
- IRCTC's P/E of 30.1x is lower than 46% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A steep 9.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹395.
IRCTC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 6.7 years IRCTC compounded at 19%/year with annualized volatility of 24%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹419-₹760, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
IRCTC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
IRCTC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds IRCTC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the IRCTC price target & forecast page.
IRCTC Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. IRCTC scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
IRCTC MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IRCTC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 27.21% | 3.7× |
| Zerodha | 27.18% | 3.7× |
| Groww | 27.24% | 3.7× |
| Dhan | 27.18% | 3.7× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 27.17% | 3.7× |
| Paytm Money | 27.24% | 3.7× |
| Pocketful | 27.19% | 3.7× |
| Fyers | 27.78% | 3.6× |
| Anand Rathi | 27.18% | 3.7× |
| Bajaj Broking | 28.00% | 3.6× |
| Share India | 27.24% | 3.7× |
Compare every broker on the IRCTC MTF page.
About Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited (IRCTC) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company in the Services sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹41,596 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the IRCTC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
IRCTC analysis, FAQs
Is Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited (IRCTC) a good buy?
On the numbers, Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited (IRCTC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 69/100, weighing premium at 30.1× earnings, ROE of 34.6%, a 64% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is IRCTC overvalued or undervalued?
IRCTC trades at 30.1× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the IRCTC share price target for 2031?
IRCTC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹784, with an 80% range of ₹398-₹1,545 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability IRCTC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of IRCTC reaching ₹1,040 (2×) within 5 years is 30%.
What is the bull case for IRCTC?
IRCTC's return on equity of 34.6% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. IRCTC's return on capital employed of 46.1% ranks in the top 2% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 64% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹565 (+9%).
What are the risks in IRCTC?
IRCTC's P/E of 30.1x is lower than 46% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 9.7× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.