Case study

IREDA

Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd.

Worth a closer look1y model +4.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

57Score

Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd. (IREDA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is IREDA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd. (IREDA) trades at ₹120,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd. (IREDA) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.1× earnings, ROE of 15.6%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

IREDA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹33,655 Cr
Current price
₹120
P/E ratio
17.1×
P/B ratio
2.44×
Book value
₹49
Dividend yield
0.50%
ROCE
8.7%
ROE
15.6%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How IREDA ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold 3-year revenue growth or debt-to-equity ratio figures for IREDA, as of 9 Aug 2026, so those are not ranked here.

Is IREDA overvalued? IREDA P/E vs peers

IREDA trades at 17.1× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

IREDA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.6y of IREDA history (26%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
IREDA 2027₹78₹125₹201+4%
IREDA 2028₹66₹131₹259+9%
IREDA 2029₹59₹136₹313+14%
IREDA 2030₹54₹143₹374+19%
IREDA 2031₹51₹149₹438+24%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability IREDA goes up, or doubles?

55%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
60%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
29%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹240 within 5 years

The bull case for IREDA

  • IREDA's P/E of 17.1x is lower than 68% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • IREDA's return on equity of 15.6% ranks in the 73rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹313.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹59.

IREDA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.6 years IREDA compounded at 26%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹78-₹201, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

IREDA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.6 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.4%
80% range₹78-₹201
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)4%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
13.9%
80% range₹59-₹313
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)19%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
24.2%
80% range₹51-₹438
P(price ↑)60%
P(price 2×)29%

IREDA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
IREDA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds IREDA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the IREDA price target & forecast page.

IREDA Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. IREDA scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

IREDA MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IREDA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox28.48%3.5×
Zerodha27.20%3.7×
Groww27.29%3.7×
DhanCHEAPEST25.00%4.0×
Kotak Neo30.03%3.3×
Paytm Money25.22%4.0×
Pocketful32.44%3.1×
Fyers33.33%3.0×
Anand Rathi31.94%3.1×
Bajaj Broking29.00%3.4×
Share India32.06%3.1×

Compare every broker on the IREDA MTF page.

About Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd.: sector, index & market-cap context

Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd. (IREDA) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹33,655 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the IREDA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd.'s public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

IREDA analysis, FAQs

Is Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd. (IREDA) a good buy?

On the numbers, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Ltd. (IREDA) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 17.1× earnings, ROE of 15.6%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is IREDA overvalued or undervalued?

IREDA trades at 17.1× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the IREDA share price target for 2031?

IREDA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹149, with an 80% range of ₹51-₹438 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability IREDA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of IREDA reaching ₹240 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.

What is the bull case for IREDA?

IREDA's P/E of 17.1x is lower than 68% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. IREDA's return on equity of 15.6% ranks in the 73rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in IREDA?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on IREDA