Case study

ITCHOTELS

ITC HOTELS LIMITED

High-risk on the numbers1y model -6.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

ITC HOTELS LIMITED (ITCHOTELS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ITCHOTELS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

ITC HOTELS LIMITED (ITCHOTELS) trades at ₹177,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100.

On the numbers, ITC HOTELS LIMITED (ITCHOTELS) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100, weighing expensive at 42.1× earnings, ROE of 7.8%, a 42% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ITCHOTELS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹36,850 Cr
Current price
₹177
P/E ratio
42.1×
P/B ratio
3.16×
Book value
₹56
Dividend yield
0.57%
ROCE
10.7%
ROE
7.8%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is ITCHOTELS overvalued? ITCHOTELS P/E vs its sector

ITCHOTELS's P/E of 42.1× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.57% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

ITCHOTELS P/E
42.1×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
ITCHOTELS div yield
0.57%
Peer median yield
1.65%

ITCHOTELS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.4y of ITCHOTELS history (-0%/yr drift, 34%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ITCHOTELS 2027₹104₹160₹246-6%
ITCHOTELS 2028₹82₹150₹279-12%
ITCHOTELS 2029₹67₹141₹299-17%
ITCHOTELS 2030₹56₹134₹316-22%
ITCHOTELS 2031₹48₹126₹334-26%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ITCHOTELS goes up, or doubles?

42%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
35%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
9%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹342 within 5 years

The bull case for ITCHOTELS

  • ITC HOTELS LIMITED is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹299.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 42.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Return on equity is a soft 7.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 42% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹67.

ITCHOTELS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.4 years ITCHOTELS compounded at -0%/year with annualized volatility of 34%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹104₹246, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ITCHOTELS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.4 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
6.4%
80% range₹104–₹246
P(price ↑)42%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
17.3%
80% range₹67–₹299
P(price ↑)37%
P(price 2×)6%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
26.2%
80% range₹48–₹334
P(price ↑)35%
P(price 2×)9%

ITCHOTELS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ITCHOTELS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ITCHOTELS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ITCHOTELS price target & forecast page.

ITCHOTELS Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ITCHOTELS scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

ITCHOTELS MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ITCHOTELS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST29.3%3.4×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST29.3%3.4×
DhanCHEAPEST29.3%3.4×

Compare every broker on the ITCHOTELS MTF page.

ITCHOTELS vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
ITCHOTELS (this stock)42.1×0.57%₹36,850 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About ITC HOTELS LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

ITC HOTELS LIMITED (ITCHOTELS) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹36,850 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the ITCHOTELS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of ITC HOTELS LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ITCHOTELS analysis, FAQs

Is ITC HOTELS LIMITED (ITCHOTELS) a good buy?

On the numbers, ITC HOTELS LIMITED (ITCHOTELS) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100, weighing expensive at 42.1× earnings, ROE of 7.8%, a 42% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ITCHOTELS overvalued or undervalued?

ITCHOTELS trades at 42.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the ITCHOTELS share price target for 2031?

ITCHOTELS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹126, with an 80% range of ₹48₹334 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ITCHOTELS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ITCHOTELS reaching ₹342 (2×) within 5 years is 9%.

What is the bull case for ITCHOTELS?

ITC HOTELS LIMITED is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in ITCHOTELS?

A rich 42.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 7.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 42% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on ITCHOTELS