Case study

ITDC

India Tourism Development Corporation Limited

Mixed signals1y model -1.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

47Score

India Tourism Development Corporation Limited (ITDC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ITDC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

India Tourism Development Corporation Limited (ITDC) trades at ₹702,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100.

On the numbers, India Tourism Development Corporation Limited (ITDC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing expensive at 72.4× earnings, ROE of 21.1%, a 48% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ITDC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹6,019 Cr
Current price
₹702
P/E ratio
72.4×
P/B ratio
14.24×
Book value
₹49
Dividend yield
0.41%
ROCE
29.9%
ROE
21.1%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How ITDC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for ITDC, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is ITDC overvalued? ITDC P/E vs peers

ITDC trades at 72.4× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

ITDC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.4y of ITDC history (13%/yr drift, 52%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ITDC 2027₹353₹688₹1,341-2%
ITDC 2028₹264₹675₹1,722-4%
ITDC 2029₹207₹662₹2,113-6%
ITDC 2030₹166₹649₹2,531-8%
ITDC 2031₹143₹636₹2,835-9%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ITDC goes up, or doubles?

48%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
47%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,404 within 5 years

The bull case for ITDC

  • ITDC's return on equity of 21.1% ranks in the 86th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • ITDC's return on capital employed of 29.9% ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,113.

The bear case & risks

  • ITDC's P/E of 72.4x is lower than 16% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 14.2× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • High historical volatility (52%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹207.

ITDC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.4 years ITDC compounded at 13%/year with annualized volatility of 52%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹353-₹1,341, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ITDC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.4 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.9%
80% range₹353-₹1,341
P(price ↑)48%
P(price 2×)9%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
5.7%
80% range₹207-₹2,113
P(price ↑)48%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
9.4%
80% range₹143-₹2,835
P(price ↑)47%
P(price 2×)25%

ITDC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ITDC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ITDC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ITDC price target & forecast page.

ITDC Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ITDC scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

ITDC MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ITDC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox41.47%2.4×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST41.41%2.4×
Groww60.00%1.7×
DhanCHEAPEST41.41%2.4×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Paytm Money41.90%2.4×
Pocketful42.25%2.4×
Fyers41.67%2.4×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST41.41%2.4×
Bajaj Broking50.00%2.0×
Share India41.66%2.4×

Compare every broker on the ITDC MTF page.

About India Tourism Development Corporation Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

India Tourism Development Corporation Limited (ITDC) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹6,019 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the ITDC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of India Tourism Development Corporation Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ITDC analysis, FAQs

Is India Tourism Development Corporation Limited (ITDC) a good buy?

On the numbers, India Tourism Development Corporation Limited (ITDC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing expensive at 72.4× earnings, ROE of 21.1%, a 48% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ITDC overvalued or undervalued?

ITDC trades at 72.4× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the ITDC share price target for 2031?

ITDC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹636, with an 80% range of ₹143-₹2,835 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ITDC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ITDC reaching ₹1,404 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for ITDC?

ITDC's return on equity of 21.1% ranks in the 86th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. ITDC's return on capital employed of 29.9% ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in ITDC?

ITDC's P/E of 72.4x is lower than 16% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 14.2× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. High historical volatility (52%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on ITDC