Case study

JMFINANCIL

JM Financial

Worth a closer look1y model +10.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

JM Financial (JMFINANCIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is JMFINANCIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

JM Financial (JMFINANCIL) trades at ₹129,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100.

On the numbers, JM Financial (JMFINANCIL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.1× earnings, ROE of 12.0%, a 59% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

JMFINANCIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹12,344 Cr
Current price
₹129
P/E ratio
10.1×
P/B ratio
1.16×
Book value
₹111
Dividend yield
2.52%
ROCE
11.6%
ROE
12.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is JMFINANCIL overvalued? JMFINANCIL P/E vs its sector

JMFINANCIL's P/E of 10.1× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 2.52% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.

JMFINANCIL P/E
10.1×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
JMFINANCIL div yield
2.52%
Peer median yield
1.67%

JMFINANCIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of JMFINANCIL history (22%/yr drift, 46%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
JMFINANCIL 2027₹77₹140₹256+11%
JMFINANCIL 2028₹67₹155₹363+23%
JMFINANCIL 2029₹63₹173₹484+37%
JMFINANCIL 2030₹59₹194₹638+54%
JMFINANCIL 2031₹58₹216₹821+71%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability JMFINANCIL goes up, or doubles?

59%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
70%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
44%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹253 within 5 years

The bull case for JMFINANCIL

  • Trades at just 10.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.16×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • A healthy 12.0% return on equity.
  • Pays a 2.5% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹484.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹63.

JMFINANCIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years JMFINANCIL compounded at 22%/year with annualized volatility of 46%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹77₹256, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

JMFINANCIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
10.9%
80% range₹77–₹256
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)11%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
37.2%
80% range₹63–₹484
P(price ↑)65%
P(price 2×)32%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
70.9%
80% range₹58–₹821
P(price ↑)70%
P(price 2×)44%

JMFINANCIL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
JMFINANCIL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds JMFINANCIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the JMFINANCIL price target & forecast page.

JMFINANCIL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. JMFINANCIL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

JMFINANCIL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy JMFINANCIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST36.4%2.7×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST36.4%2.7×
DhanCHEAPEST36.4%2.7×

Compare every broker on the JMFINANCIL MTF page.

JMFINANCIL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
JMFINANCIL (this stock)10.1×2.52%₹12,344 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About JM Financial: sector, index & market-cap context

JM Financial (JMFINANCIL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹12,344 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the JMFINANCIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of JM Financial's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

JMFINANCIL analysis, FAQs

Is JM Financial (JMFINANCIL) a good buy?

On the numbers, JM Financial (JMFINANCIL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.1× earnings, ROE of 12.0%, a 59% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is JMFINANCIL overvalued or undervalued?

JMFINANCIL trades at 10.1× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the JMFINANCIL share price target for 2031?

JMFINANCIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹216, with an 80% range of ₹58₹821 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability JMFINANCIL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of JMFINANCIL reaching ₹253 (2×) within 5 years is 44%.

What is the bull case for JMFINANCIL?

Trades at just 10.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.16×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. A healthy 12.0% return on equity.

What are the risks in JMFINANCIL?

High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on JMFINANCIL