KAJARIACER
Kajaria Ceramics
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Kajaria Ceramics (KAJARIACER) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is KAJARIACER a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Kajaria Ceramics (KAJARIACER) trades at ₹1,166,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100.
On the numbers, Kajaria Ceramics (KAJARIACER) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing premium at 35.8× earnings, ROE of 17.9%, a 33% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
KAJARIACER fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is KAJARIACER overvalued? KAJARIACER P/E vs its sector
KAJARIACER's P/E of 35.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.77% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
KAJARIACER share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of KAJARIACER history (-9%/yr drift, 30%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAJARIACER 2027 | ₹698 | ₹1,021 | ₹1,499 | -13% |
| KAJARIACER 2028 | ₹522 | ₹902 | ₹1,533 | -23% |
| KAJARIACER 2029 | ₹407 | ₹786 | ₹1,529 | -33% |
| KAJARIACER 2030 | ₹317 | ₹684 | ₹1,494 | -42% |
| KAJARIACER 2031 | ₹254 | ₹600 | ₹1,426 | -49% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability KAJARIACER goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for KAJARIACER
- A healthy 17.9% return on equity.
- Strong ROCE (23.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,529.
The bear case & risks
- At 35.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 33% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹407.
KAJARIACER volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years KAJARIACER compounded at -9%/year with annualized volatility of 30%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹698–₹1,499, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
KAJARIACER price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
KAJARIACER price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds KAJARIACER hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the KAJARIACER price target & forecast page.
KAJARIACER Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. KAJARIACER scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
KAJARIACER MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KAJARIACER with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 30.2% | 3.3× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 30.2% | 3.3× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 30.2% | 3.3× |
Compare every broker on the KAJARIACER MTF page.
KAJARIACER vs peers,sector comparison
About Kajaria Ceramics: sector, index & market-cap context
Kajaria Ceramics (KAJARIACER) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹18,589 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the KAJARIACER Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Kajaria Ceramics's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
KAJARIACER analysis, FAQs
Is Kajaria Ceramics (KAJARIACER) a good buy?
On the numbers, Kajaria Ceramics (KAJARIACER) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing premium at 35.8× earnings, ROE of 17.9%, a 33% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is KAJARIACER overvalued or undervalued?
KAJARIACER trades at 35.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the KAJARIACER share price target for 2031?
KAJARIACER's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹600, with an 80% range of ₹254–₹1,426 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability KAJARIACER doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of KAJARIACER reaching ₹2,341 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.
What is the bull case for KAJARIACER?
A healthy 17.9% return on equity. Strong ROCE (23.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in KAJARIACER?
At 35.8× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 33% chance of finishing above today's price.