Case study

KCP

KCP

Worth a closer look1y model -22.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

KCP (KCP) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is KCP a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

KCP (KCP) trades at ₹177,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100.

On the numbers, KCP (KCP) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.3× earnings, ROE of 12.2%, a 25% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

KCP fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,290 Cr
Current price
₹177
P/E ratio
11.3×
P/B ratio
1.28×
Book value
₹138
Dividend yield
0.14%
ROCE
12.2%
ROE
12.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is KCP overvalued? KCP P/E vs its sector

KCP's P/E of 11.3× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.14% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

KCP P/E
11.3×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
KCP div yield
0.14%
Peer median yield
1.65%

KCP share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of KCP history (-18%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
KCP 2027₹80₹130₹208-22%
KCP 2028₹52₹101₹198-40%
KCP 2029₹34₹79₹180-53%
KCP 2030₹24₹61₹161-64%
KCP 2031₹17₹48₹137-72%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability KCP goes up, or doubles?

25%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
7%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹336 within 5 years

The bull case for KCP

  • Trades at just 11.3× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.28×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • A healthy 12.2% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹180.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 25% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹34.

KCP volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years KCP compounded at -18%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹80₹208, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

KCP price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
22.4%
80% range₹80–₹208
P(price ↑)25%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
52.8%
80% range₹34–₹180
P(price ↑)12%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
71.5%
80% range₹17–₹137
P(price ↑)7%
P(price 2×)1%

KCP price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
KCP simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds KCP hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the KCP price target & forecast page.

KCP Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. KCP scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

KCP MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KCP with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST32.7%3.1×
Dhan40.0%2.5×

Compare every broker on the KCP MTF page.

KCP vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
KCP (this stock)11.3×0.14%₹2,290 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About KCP: sector, index & market-cap context

KCP (KCP) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,290 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the KCP Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of KCP's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

KCP analysis, FAQs

Is KCP (KCP) a good buy?

On the numbers, KCP (KCP) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.3× earnings, ROE of 12.2%, a 25% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is KCP overvalued or undervalued?

KCP trades at 11.3× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the KCP share price target for 2031?

KCP's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹48, with an 80% range of ₹17₹137 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability KCP doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of KCP reaching ₹336 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for KCP?

Trades at just 11.3× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.28×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. A healthy 12.2% return on equity.

What are the risks in KCP?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 25% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on KCP