Case study

KEC

KEC International

Tread carefully1y model -28.1%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

KEC International (KEC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is KEC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

KEC International (KEC) trades at ₹545,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100.

On the numbers, KEC International (KEC) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.3× earnings, ROE of 11.3%, a 22% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

KEC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹14,508 Cr
Current price
₹545
P/E ratio
22.3×
P/B ratio
2.36×
Book value
₹231
Dividend yield
1.01%
ROCE
14.5%
ROE
11.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is KEC overvalued? KEC P/E vs its sector

KEC's P/E of 22.3× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.01% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

KEC P/E
22.3×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
KEC div yield
1.01%
Peer median yield
1.65%

KEC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of KEC history (-25%/yr drift, 42%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
KEC 2027₹230₹389₹670-28%
KEC 2028₹132₹282₹604-48%
KEC 2029₹82₹201₹512-63%
KEC 2030₹50₹143₹423-74%
KEC 2031₹31₹102₹349-81%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability KEC goes up, or doubles?

22%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
4%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,083 within 5 years

The bull case for KEC

  • A 22.3× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹512.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 11.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 22% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹82.

KEC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years KEC compounded at -25%/year with annualized volatility of 42%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹230₹670, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

KEC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
28.1%
80% range₹230–₹670
P(price ↑)22%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
62.8%
80% range₹82–₹512
P(price ↑)9%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
81.2%
80% range₹31–₹349
P(price ↑)4%
P(price 2×)1%

KEC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
KEC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds KEC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the KEC price target & forecast page.

KEC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. KEC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

KEC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KEC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST34.2%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST34.2%2.9×
DhanCHEAPEST34.2%2.9×

Compare every broker on the KEC MTF page.

KEC vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
KEC (this stock)22.3×1.01%₹14,508 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About KEC International: sector, index & market-cap context

KEC International (KEC) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹14,508 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the KEC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of KEC International's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

KEC analysis, FAQs

Is KEC International (KEC) a good buy?

On the numbers, KEC International (KEC) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.3× earnings, ROE of 11.3%, a 22% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is KEC overvalued or undervalued?

KEC trades at 22.3× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the KEC share price target for 2031?

KEC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹102, with an 80% range of ₹31₹349 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability KEC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of KEC reaching ₹1,083 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for KEC?

A 22.3× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.

What are the risks in KEC?

Return on equity is a soft 11.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 22% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on KEC