Case study

KEC

Kec International Limited

Mixed signals1y model +3.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

49Score

Kec International Limited (KEC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is KEC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Kec International Limited (KEC) trades at ₹479,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100.

On the numbers, Kec International Limited (KEC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.5× earnings, ROE of 11.4%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

KEC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹12,747 Cr
Current price
₹479
P/E ratio
19.5×
P/B ratio
2.07×
Book value
₹231
Dividend yield
1.15%
ROCE
16.5%
ROE
11.4%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How KEC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is KEC overvalued? KEC P/E vs peers

KEC trades at 19.5× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

KEC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of KEC history (12%/yr drift, 42%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
KEC 2027₹288₹496₹855+4%
KEC 2028₹243₹514₹1,091+7%
KEC 2029₹212₹533₹1,342+11%
KEC 2030₹192₹553₹1,591+15%
KEC 2031₹174₹573₹1,887+20%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability KEC goes up, or doubles?

54%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
58%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
28%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹958 within 5 years

The bull case for KEC

  • KEC's P/E of 19.5x is lower than 64% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,342.

The bear case & risks

  • KEC's return on equity of 11.4% ranks in the 57th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹212.

KEC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years KEC compounded at 12%/year with annualized volatility of 42%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹288-₹855, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

KEC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
3.6%
80% range₹288-₹855
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
11.4%
80% range₹212-₹1,342
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
19.6%
80% range₹174-₹1,887
P(price ↑)58%
P(price 2×)28%

KEC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
KEC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds KEC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the KEC price target & forecast page.

KEC Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. KEC scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

KEC MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KEC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox33.30%3.0×
Zerodha33.27%3.0×
Groww33.43%3.0×
Dhan33.27%3.0×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST33.22%3.0×
Paytm Money35.30%2.8×
Pocketful33.78%3.0×
Fyers34.48%2.9×
Anand Rathi33.27%3.0×
Bajaj Broking37.00%2.7×
Share India33.42%3.0×

Compare every broker on the KEC MTF page.

About Kec International Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Kec International Limited (KEC) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹12,747 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the KEC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Kec International Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

KEC analysis, FAQs

Is Kec International Limited (KEC) a good buy?

On the numbers, Kec International Limited (KEC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.5× earnings, ROE of 11.4%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is KEC overvalued or undervalued?

KEC trades at 19.5× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the KEC share price target for 2031?

KEC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹573, with an 80% range of ₹174-₹1,887 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability KEC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of KEC reaching ₹958 (2×) within 5 years is 28%.

What is the bull case for KEC?

KEC's P/E of 19.5x is lower than 64% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in KEC?

KEC's return on equity of 11.4% ranks in the 57th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on KEC