Case study

KPEL

K.P. ENERGY LIMITED

Worth a closer look1y model -34.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

K.P. ENERGY LIMITED (KPEL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is KPEL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

K.P. ENERGY LIMITED (KPEL) trades at ₹351,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100.

On the numbers, K.P. ENERGY LIMITED (KPEL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.1× earnings, ROE of 43.4%, a 20% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

KPEL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,384 Cr
Current price
₹351
P/E ratio
13.1×
P/B ratio
4.53×
Book value
₹77
Dividend yield
0.19%
ROCE
39.2%
ROE
43.4%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is KPEL overvalued? KPEL P/E vs its sector

KPEL's P/E of 13.1× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.19% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

KPEL P/E
13.1×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
KPEL div yield
0.19%
Peer median yield
1.65%

KPEL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.6y of KPEL history (-30%/yr drift, 50%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
KPEL 2027₹121₹229₹436-35%
KPEL 2028₹60₹149₹374-57%
KPEL 2029₹32₹98₹293-72%
KPEL 2030₹18₹63₹224-82%
KPEL 2031₹10₹42₹173-88%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability KPEL goes up, or doubles?

20%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
3%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹703 within 5 years

The bull case for KPEL

  • Trades at just 13.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • High return on equity (43.4%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (39.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹293.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 20% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (50%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹32.

KPEL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.6 years KPEL compounded at -30%/year with annualized volatility of 50%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹121₹436, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

KPEL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.6 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
34.9%
80% range₹121–₹436
P(price ↑)20%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
72.2%
80% range₹32–₹293
P(price ↑)7%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
88.2%
80% range₹10–₹173
P(price ↑)3%
P(price 2×)1%

KPEL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
KPEL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds KPEL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the KPEL price target & forecast page.

KPEL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. KPEL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

KPEL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KPEL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST37.4%2.7×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST37.4%2.7×
DhanCHEAPEST37.4%2.7×

Compare every broker on the KPEL MTF page.

KPEL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
KPEL (this stock)13.1×0.19%₹2,384 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About K.P. ENERGY LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

K.P. ENERGY LIMITED (KPEL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,384 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the KPEL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of K.P. ENERGY LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

KPEL analysis, FAQs

Is K.P. ENERGY LIMITED (KPEL) a good buy?

On the numbers, K.P. ENERGY LIMITED (KPEL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.1× earnings, ROE of 43.4%, a 20% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is KPEL overvalued or undervalued?

KPEL trades at 13.1× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the KPEL share price target for 2031?

KPEL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹42, with an 80% range of ₹10₹173 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability KPEL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of KPEL reaching ₹703 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for KPEL?

Trades at just 13.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (43.4%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (39.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in KPEL?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 20% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (50%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on KPEL