Case study

KRISHNADEF

KRISHNA DEF AND ALD IND L

Mixed signals1y model +4.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

KRISHNA DEF AND ALD IND L (KRISHNADEF) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is KRISHNADEF a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

KRISHNA DEF AND ALD IND L (KRISHNADEF) trades at ₹1,370,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100.

On the numbers, KRISHNA DEF AND ALD IND L (KRISHNADEF) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing expensive at 49.5× earnings, ROE of 25.4%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

KRISHNADEF fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,046 Cr
Current price
₹1,370
P/E ratio
49.5×
P/B ratio
10.54×
Book value
₹130
Dividend yield
0.07%
ROCE
30.4%
ROE
25.4%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is KRISHNADEF overvalued? KRISHNADEF P/E vs its sector

KRISHNADEF's P/E of 49.5× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.07% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

KRISHNADEF P/E
49.5×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
KRISHNADEF div yield
0.07%
Peer median yield
1.65%

KRISHNADEF share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of KRISHNADEF history (19%/yr drift, 55%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
KRISHNADEF 2027₹697₹1,410₹2,852+4%
KRISHNADEF 2028₹526₹1,453₹3,979+8%
KRISHNADEF 2029₹433₹1,510₹5,194+12%
KRISHNADEF 2030₹374₹1,583₹6,478+17%
KRISHNADEF 2031₹326₹1,610₹7,928+19%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability KRISHNADEF goes up, or doubles?

53%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
56%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
34%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,701 within 5 years

The bull case for KRISHNADEF

  • High return on equity (25.4%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (30.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹5,194.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 49.5× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 10.5× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • High historical volatility (55%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹433.

KRISHNADEF volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years KRISHNADEF compounded at 19%/year with annualized volatility of 55%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹697₹2,852, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

KRISHNADEF price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.4%
80% range₹697–₹2,852
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)12%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
11.8%
80% range₹433–₹5,194
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)27%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
19.2%
80% range₹326–₹7,928
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)34%

KRISHNADEF price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
KRISHNADEF simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds KRISHNADEF hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the KRISHNADEF price target & forecast page.

KRISHNADEF Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. KRISHNADEF scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

KRISHNADEF MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KRISHNADEF with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST34.1%2.9×
Dhan50.0%2.0×

Compare every broker on the KRISHNADEF MTF page.

KRISHNADEF vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
KRISHNADEF (this stock)49.5×0.07%₹2,046 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About KRISHNA DEF AND ALD IND L: sector, index & market-cap context

KRISHNA DEF AND ALD IND L (KRISHNADEF) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,046 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the KRISHNADEF Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of KRISHNA DEF AND ALD IND L's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

KRISHNADEF analysis, FAQs

Is KRISHNA DEF AND ALD IND L (KRISHNADEF) a good buy?

On the numbers, KRISHNA DEF AND ALD IND L (KRISHNADEF) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing expensive at 49.5× earnings, ROE of 25.4%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is KRISHNADEF overvalued or undervalued?

KRISHNADEF trades at 49.5× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the KRISHNADEF share price target for 2031?

KRISHNADEF's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,610, with an 80% range of ₹326₹7,928 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability KRISHNADEF doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of KRISHNADEF reaching ₹2,701 (2×) within 5 years is 34%.

What is the bull case for KRISHNADEF?

High return on equity (25.4%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (30.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in KRISHNADEF?

A rich 49.5× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 10.5× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. High historical volatility (55%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on KRISHNADEF