Case study

KSL

Kalyani Steels

Worth a closer look1y model -13.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Kalyani Steels (KSL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is KSL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Kalyani Steels (KSL) trades at ₹826,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100.

On the numbers, Kalyani Steels (KSL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.7× earnings, ROE of 13.2%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

KSL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3,610 Cr
Current price
₹826
P/E ratio
13.7×
P/B ratio
1.71×
Book value
₹482
Dividend yield
1.21%
ROCE
14.8%
ROE
13.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is KSL overvalued? KSL P/E vs its sector

KSL's P/E of 13.7× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 1.21% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

KSL P/E
13.7×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
KSL div yield
1.21%
Peer median yield
1.65%

KSL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of KSL history (-6%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
KSL 2027₹434₹717₹1,203-13%
KSL 2028₹307₹625₹1,300-25%
KSL 2029₹227₹539₹1,320-35%
KSL 2030₹174₹473₹1,333-43%
KSL 2031₹134₹410₹1,303-51%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability KSL goes up, or doubles?

36%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
22%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
6%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,659 within 5 years

The bull case for KSL

  • Trades at just 13.7× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • A healthy 13.2% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,320.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹227.

KSL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years KSL compounded at -6%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹434₹1,203, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

KSL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
13.5%
80% range₹434–₹1,203
P(price ↑)36%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
35.0%
80% range₹227–₹1,320
P(price ↑)27%
P(price 2×)5%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
50.6%
80% range₹134–₹1,303
P(price ↑)22%
P(price 2×)6%

KSL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
KSL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds KSL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the KSL price target & forecast page.

KSL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. KSL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

KSL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KSL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.5%3.0×
Dhan40.0%2.5×

Compare every broker on the KSL MTF page.

KSL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
KSL (this stock)13.7×1.21%₹3,610 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Kalyani Steels: sector, index & market-cap context

Kalyani Steels (KSL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,610 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the KSL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Kalyani Steels's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

KSL analysis, FAQs

Is Kalyani Steels (KSL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Kalyani Steels (KSL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.7× earnings, ROE of 13.2%, a 36% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is KSL overvalued or undervalued?

KSL trades at 13.7× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the KSL share price target for 2031?

KSL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹410, with an 80% range of ₹134₹1,303 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability KSL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of KSL reaching ₹1,659 (2×) within 5 years is 6%.

What is the bull case for KSL?

Trades at just 13.7× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. A healthy 13.2% return on equity.

What are the risks in KSL?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 36% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on KSL