Case study

KTKBANK

Karnataka Bank

Worth a closer look1y model +4.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Karnataka Bank (KTKBANK) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is KTKBANK a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Karnataka Bank (KTKBANK) trades at ₹274,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, Karnataka Bank (KTKBANK) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.9× earnings, ROE of 10.4%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

KTKBANK fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹10,372 Cr
Current price
₹274
P/E ratio
7.9×
P/B ratio
0.78×
Book value
₹350
Dividend yield
1.82%
ROCE
6.1%
ROE
10.4%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is KTKBANK overvalued? KTKBANK P/E vs its sector

KTKBANK's P/E of 7.9× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 1.82% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.

KTKBANK P/E
7.9×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
KTKBANK div yield
1.82%
Peer median yield
1.67%

KTKBANK share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of KTKBANK history (10%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
KTKBANK 2027₹194₹287₹427+4%
KTKBANK 2028₹173₹300₹536+9%
KTKBANK 2029₹160₹317₹637+15%
KTKBANK 2030₹151₹335₹735+22%
KTKBANK 2031₹143₹350₹845+27%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability KTKBANK goes up, or doubles?

55%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
64%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹549 within 5 years

The bull case for KTKBANK

  • Trades at just 7.9× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 0.78×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹637.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 10.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹160.

KTKBANK volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years KTKBANK compounded at 10%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹194₹427, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

KTKBANK price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.3%
80% range₹194–₹427
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
15.4%
80% range₹160–₹637
P(price ↑)60%
P(price 2×)16%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
27.4%
80% range₹143–₹845
P(price ↑)64%
P(price 2×)26%

KTKBANK price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
KTKBANK simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds KTKBANK hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the KTKBANK price target & forecast page.

KTKBANK Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. KTKBANK scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

KTKBANK MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy KTKBANK with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST31.2%3.2×
DhanCHEAPEST31.2%3.2×

Compare every broker on the KTKBANK MTF page.

KTKBANK vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
KTKBANK (this stock)7.9×1.82%₹10,372 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Karnataka Bank: sector, index & market-cap context

Karnataka Bank (KTKBANK) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹10,372 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the KTKBANK Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Karnataka Bank's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

KTKBANK analysis, FAQs

Is Karnataka Bank (KTKBANK) a good buy?

On the numbers, Karnataka Bank (KTKBANK) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.9× earnings, ROE of 10.4%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is KTKBANK overvalued or undervalued?

KTKBANK trades at 7.9× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the KTKBANK share price target for 2031?

KTKBANK's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹350, with an 80% range of ₹143₹845 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability KTKBANK doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of KTKBANK reaching ₹549 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for KTKBANK?

Trades at just 7.9× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 0.78×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in KTKBANK?

Return on equity is a soft 10.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.

More on KTKBANK