LEMONTREE
Lemon Tree Hotels
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Lemon Tree Hotels (LEMONTREE) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is LEMONTREE a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Lemon Tree Hotels (LEMONTREE) trades at ₹119,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 40/100.
On the numbers, Lemon Tree Hotels (LEMONTREE) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 40/100, weighing premium at 37.9× earnings, ROE of 19.4%, a 29% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
LEMONTREE fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is LEMONTREE overvalued? LEMONTREE P/E vs its sector
LEMONTREE's P/E of 37.9× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
LEMONTREE share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of LEMONTREE history (-13%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEMONTREE 2027 | ₹60 | ₹93 | ₹145 | -18% |
| LEMONTREE 2028 | ₹41 | ₹78 | ₹144 | -31% |
| LEMONTREE 2029 | ₹30 | ₹63 | ₹136 | -44% |
| LEMONTREE 2030 | ₹22 | ₹52 | ₹128 | -54% |
| LEMONTREE 2031 | ₹16 | ₹43 | ₹118 | -62% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability LEMONTREE goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for LEMONTREE
- High return on equity (19.4%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹136.
The bear case & risks
- At 37.9× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 29% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹30.
LEMONTREE volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years LEMONTREE compounded at -13%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹60–₹145, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
LEMONTREE price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
LEMONTREE price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds LEMONTREE hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the LEMONTREE price target & forecast page.
LEMONTREE Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. LEMONTREE scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
LEMONTREE MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LEMONTREE with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 31.6% | 3.2× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 31.6% | 3.2× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 31.6% | 3.2× |
Compare every broker on the LEMONTREE MTF page.
LEMONTREE vs peers,sector comparison
About Lemon Tree Hotels: sector, index & market-cap context
Lemon Tree Hotels (LEMONTREE) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹9,407 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the LEMONTREE Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Lemon Tree Hotels's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
LEMONTREE analysis, FAQs
Is Lemon Tree Hotels (LEMONTREE) a good buy?
On the numbers, Lemon Tree Hotels (LEMONTREE) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 40/100, weighing premium at 37.9× earnings, ROE of 19.4%, a 29% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is LEMONTREE overvalued or undervalued?
LEMONTREE trades at 37.9× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the LEMONTREE share price target for 2031?
LEMONTREE's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹43, with an 80% range of ₹16–₹118 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability LEMONTREE doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of LEMONTREE reaching ₹226 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.
What is the bull case for LEMONTREE?
High return on equity (19.4%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
What are the risks in LEMONTREE?
At 37.9× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 29% chance of finishing above today's price.