LGHL
LGHL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
LGHL (LGHL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is LGHL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
LGHL (LGHL) trades at ₹226,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100.
On the numbers, LGHL (LGHL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing expensive at 96.3× earnings, ROE of 19.1%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
LGHL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is LGHL overvalued? LGHL P/E vs its sector
LGHL's P/E of 96.3× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
LGHL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of LGHL history (24%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGHL 2027 | ₹139 | ₹258 | ₹484 | +12% |
| LGHL 2028 | ₹121 | ₹293 | ₹707 | +28% |
| LGHL 2029 | ₹114 | ₹336 | ₹964 | +47% |
| LGHL 2030 | ₹109 | ₹379 | ₹1,277 | +65% |
| LGHL 2031 | ₹108 | ₹437 | ₹1,680 | +91% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability LGHL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for LGHL
- High return on equity (19.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 60% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹258 (+12%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹964.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 96.3× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 17.4× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹114.
LGHL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years LGHL compounded at 24%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹139–₹484, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
LGHL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
LGHL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds LGHL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the LGHL price target & forecast page.
LGHL Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. LGHL scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
LGHL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LGHL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| DhanCHEAPEST | 50.0% | 2.0× |
Compare every broker on the LGHL MTF page.
LGHL vs peers,sector comparison
About LGHL: sector, index & market-cap context
LGHL (LGHL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,132 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the LGHL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of LGHL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
LGHL analysis, FAQs
Is LGHL (LGHL) a good buy?
On the numbers, LGHL (LGHL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing expensive at 96.3× earnings, ROE of 19.1%, a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is LGHL overvalued or undervalued?
LGHL trades at 96.3× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the LGHL share price target for 2031?
LGHL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹437, with an 80% range of ₹108–₹1,680 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability LGHL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of LGHL reaching ₹458 (2×) within 5 years is 48%.
What is the bull case for LGHL?
High return on equity (19.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 60% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹258 (+12%).
What are the risks in LGHL?
A rich 96.3× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 17.4× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.