LICMFGOLD
LIC MF Gold Exchange Traded Fund
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
LIC MF Gold Exchange Traded Fund (LICMFGOLD) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is LICMFGOLD a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100.
On the numbers, LIC MF Gold Exchange Traded Fund (LICMFGOLD) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing a 64% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
How LICMFGOLD ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
LICMFGOLD is not currently one of the 2,373 companies in our live screener universe, so no percentile comparison is available for it here.
LICMFGOLD share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of LICMFGOLD history (16%/yr drift, 27%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LICMFGOLD 2027 | ₹104 | ₹148 | ₹210 | +10% |
| LICMFGOLD 2028 | ₹100 | ₹163 | ₹268 | +22% |
| LICMFGOLD 2029 | ₹97 | ₹180 | ₹333 | +34% |
| LICMFGOLD 2030 | ₹99 | ₹199 | ₹401 | +48% |
| LICMFGOLD 2031 | ₹99 | ₹219 | ₹485 | +63% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability LICMFGOLD goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for LICMFGOLD
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 64% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹148 (+10%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹333.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹97.
LICMFGOLD volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years LICMFGOLD compounded at 16%/year with annualized volatility of 27%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹104-₹210, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
LICMFGOLD price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
LICMFGOLD price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds LICMFGOLD hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the LICMFGOLD price target & forecast page.
LICMFGOLD MTF margin & leverage across 8 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LICMFGOLD with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 8 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 29.23% | 3.4× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 29.21% | 3.4× |
| Dhan | 30.00% | 3.3× |
| Kotak Neo | 30.03% | 3.3× |
| Paytm Money | 29.43% | 3.4× |
| Pocketful | 29.62% | 3.4× |
| Anand RathiCHEAPEST | 29.21% | 3.4× |
| Share India | 29.26% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the LICMFGOLD MTF page.
About LIC MF Gold Exchange Traded Fund: sector, index & market-cap context
LIC MF Gold Exchange Traded Fund (LICMFGOLD) is an NSE-listed company. See more stocks on our screener.
How the LICMFGOLD Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of LIC MF Gold Exchange Traded Fund's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
LICMFGOLD analysis, FAQs
Is LIC MF Gold Exchange Traded Fund (LICMFGOLD) a good buy?
On the numbers, LIC MF Gold Exchange Traded Fund (LICMFGOLD) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing a 64% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is LICMFGOLD overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for LICMFGOLD are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the LICMFGOLD share price target for 2031?
LICMFGOLD's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹219, with an 80% range of ₹99-₹485 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability LICMFGOLD doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of LICMFGOLD reaching ₹269 (2×) within 5 years is 37%.
What is the bull case for LICMFGOLD?
A 10,000-path probability model puts a 64% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹148 (+10%).
What are the risks in LICMFGOLD?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.