Case study

LTF

L&T Finance

Worth a closer look1y model +19.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

L&T Finance (LTF) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is LTF a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

L&T Finance (LTF) trades at ₹289,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, L&T Finance (LTF) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.1× earnings, ROE of 11.2%, a 70% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

LTF fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹72,321 Cr
Current price
₹289
P/E ratio
24.1×
P/B ratio
2.58×
Book value
₹112
Dividend yield
0.95%
ROCE
8.4%
ROE
11.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is LTF overvalued? LTF P/E vs its sector

LTF's P/E of 24.1× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.95% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

LTF P/E
24.1×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
LTF div yield
0.95%
Peer median yield
1.65%

LTF share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of LTF history (24%/yr drift, 33%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
LTF 2027₹222₹344₹529+20%
LTF 2028₹223₹411₹764+43%
LTF 2029₹235₹496₹1,050+73%
LTF 2030₹249₹592₹1,421+107%
LTF 2031₹269₹715₹1,858+149%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability LTF goes up, or doubles?

70%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
88%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
62%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹573 within 5 years

The bull case for LTF

  • A 24.1× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 70% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹344 (+20%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,050.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 11.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹235.

LTF volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years LTF compounded at 24%/year with annualized volatility of 33%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹222₹529, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

LTF price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
19.9%
80% range₹222–₹529
P(price ↑)70%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
73.0%
80% range₹235–₹1,050
P(price ↑)83%
P(price 2×)40%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
149.4%
80% range₹269–₹1,858
P(price ↑)88%
P(price 2×)62%

LTF price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
LTF simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds LTF hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the LTF price target & forecast page.

LTF Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. LTF scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

LTF MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LTF with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox31.6%3.2×
Zerodha27.0%3.7×
DhanCHEAPEST24.6%4.1×

Compare every broker on the LTF MTF page.

LTF vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
LTF (this stock)24.1×0.95%₹72,321 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About L&T Finance: sector, index & market-cap context

L&T Finance (LTF) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹72,321 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the LTF Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of L&T Finance's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

LTF analysis, FAQs

Is L&T Finance (LTF) a good buy?

On the numbers, L&T Finance (LTF) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.1× earnings, ROE of 11.2%, a 70% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is LTF overvalued or undervalued?

LTF trades at 24.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the LTF share price target for 2031?

LTF's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹715, with an 80% range of ₹269₹1,858 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability LTF doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of LTF reaching ₹573 (2×) within 5 years is 62%.

What is the bull case for LTF?

A 24.1× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 70% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹344 (+20%).

What are the risks in LTF?

Return on equity is a soft 11.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.

More on LTF