Case study

LUMAXIND

Lumax Industries

Worth a closer look1y model +24.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Lumax Industries (LUMAXIND) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is LUMAXIND a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Lumax Industries (LUMAXIND) trades at ₹5,259,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 62/100.

On the numbers, Lumax Industries (LUMAXIND) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 62/100, weighing premium at 26.4× earnings, ROE of 22.0%, a 69% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

LUMAXIND fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹4,917 Cr
Current price
₹5,259
P/E ratio
26.4×
P/B ratio
5.36×
Book value
₹982
Dividend yield
0.67%
ROCE
17.7%
ROE
22.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is LUMAXIND overvalued? LUMAXIND P/E vs its sector

LUMAXIND's P/E of 26.4× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.67% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

LUMAXIND P/E
26.4×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
LUMAXIND div yield
0.67%
Peer median yield
1.65%

LUMAXIND share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of LUMAXIND history (31%/yr drift, 44%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
LUMAXIND 2027₹3,724₹6,592₹11,442+25%
LUMAXIND 2028₹3,670₹8,110₹18,125+54%
LUMAXIND 2029₹3,760₹9,907₹26,938+88%
LUMAXIND 2030₹4,075₹12,471₹38,849+136%
LUMAXIND 2031₹4,410₹15,315₹55,325+190%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability LUMAXIND goes up, or doubles?

69%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
86%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
65%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹10,559 within 5 years

The bull case for LUMAXIND

  • High return on equity (22.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 69% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹6,592 (+25%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹26,938.

The bear case & risks

  • At 26.4× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹3,760.

LUMAXIND volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years LUMAXIND compounded at 31%/year with annualized volatility of 44%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹3,724₹11,442, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

LUMAXIND price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
24.9%
80% range₹3,724–₹11,442
P(price ↑)69%
P(price 2×)13%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
87.6%
80% range₹3,760–₹26,938
P(price ↑)80%
P(price 2×)47%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
190.1%
80% range₹4,410–₹55,325
P(price ↑)86%
P(price 2×)65%

LUMAXIND price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
LUMAXIND simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds LUMAXIND hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the LUMAXIND price target & forecast page.

LUMAXIND Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. LUMAXIND scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

LUMAXIND MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LUMAXIND with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST37.5%2.7×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST37.5%2.7×
DhanCHEAPEST37.5%2.7×

Compare every broker on the LUMAXIND MTF page.

LUMAXIND vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
LUMAXIND (this stock)26.4×0.67%₹4,917 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Lumax Industries: sector, index & market-cap context

Lumax Industries (LUMAXIND) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹4,917 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the LUMAXIND Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Lumax Industries's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

LUMAXIND analysis, FAQs

Is Lumax Industries (LUMAXIND) a good buy?

On the numbers, Lumax Industries (LUMAXIND) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 62/100, weighing premium at 26.4× earnings, ROE of 22.0%, a 69% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is LUMAXIND overvalued or undervalued?

LUMAXIND trades at 26.4× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the LUMAXIND share price target for 2031?

LUMAXIND's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹15,315, with an 80% range of ₹4,410₹55,325 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability LUMAXIND doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of LUMAXIND reaching ₹10,559 (2×) within 5 years is 65%.

What is the bull case for LUMAXIND?

High return on equity (22.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 69% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹6,592 (+25%).

What are the risks in LUMAXIND?

At 26.4× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.

More on LUMAXIND