Case study

LUMAXTECH

Lumax Auto Tech

Worth a closer look1y model +54.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Lumax Auto Tech (LUMAXTECH) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is LUMAXTECH a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Lumax Auto Tech (LUMAXTECH) trades at ₹1,653,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.

On the numbers, Lumax Auto Tech (LUMAXTECH) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing premium at 39.2× earnings, ROE of 26.8%, a 81% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

LUMAXTECH fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹11,268 Cr
Current price
₹1,653
P/E ratio
39.2×
P/B ratio
9.29×
Book value
₹178
Dividend yield
0.33%
ROCE
21.4%
ROE
26.8%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is LUMAXTECH overvalued? LUMAXTECH P/E vs its sector

LUMAXTECH's P/E of 39.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.33% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

LUMAXTECH P/E
39.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
LUMAXTECH div yield
0.33%
Peer median yield
1.65%

LUMAXTECH share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of LUMAXTECH history (56%/yr drift, 49%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
LUMAXTECH 2027₹1,357₹2,539₹4,789+54%
LUMAXTECH 2028₹1,631₹3,922₹9,566+138%
LUMAXTECH 2029₹2,077₹6,008₹18,151+265%
LUMAXTECH 2030₹2,711₹9,190₹33,760+458%
LUMAXTECH 2031₹3,596₹14,341₹59,890+771%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability LUMAXTECH goes up, or doubles?

81%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
98%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
91%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,293 within 5 years

The bull case for LUMAXTECH

  • High return on equity (26.8%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (21.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 81% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹2,539 (+54%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹18,151.

The bear case & risks

  • At 39.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • A steep 9.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,077.

LUMAXTECH volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years LUMAXTECH compounded at 56%/year with annualized volatility of 49%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,357₹4,789, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

LUMAXTECH price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
54.2%
80% range₹1,357–₹4,789
P(price ↑)81%
P(price 2×)30%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
264.9%
80% range₹2,077–₹18,151
P(price ↑)94%
P(price 2×)77%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
771.0%
80% range₹3,596–₹59,890
P(price ↑)98%
P(price 2×)91%

LUMAXTECH price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
LUMAXTECH simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds LUMAXTECH hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the LUMAXTECH price target & forecast page.

LUMAXTECH Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. LUMAXTECH scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

LUMAXTECH MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy LUMAXTECH with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST38.8%2.6×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST38.8%2.6×
DhanCHEAPEST38.8%2.6×

Compare every broker on the LUMAXTECH MTF page.

LUMAXTECH vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
LUMAXTECH (this stock)39.2×0.33%₹11,268 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Lumax Auto Tech: sector, index & market-cap context

Lumax Auto Tech (LUMAXTECH) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹11,268 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the LUMAXTECH Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Lumax Auto Tech's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

LUMAXTECH analysis, FAQs

Is Lumax Auto Tech (LUMAXTECH) a good buy?

On the numbers, Lumax Auto Tech (LUMAXTECH) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing premium at 39.2× earnings, ROE of 26.8%, a 81% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is LUMAXTECH overvalued or undervalued?

LUMAXTECH trades at 39.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the LUMAXTECH share price target for 2031?

LUMAXTECH's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹14,341, with an 80% range of ₹3,596₹59,890 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability LUMAXTECH doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of LUMAXTECH reaching ₹3,293 (2×) within 5 years is 91%.

What is the bull case for LUMAXTECH?

High return on equity (26.8%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (21.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 81% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹2,539 (+54%).

What are the risks in LUMAXTECH?

At 39.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. A steep 9.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on LUMAXTECH