Case study

MAHLOG

Mahindra Logistics

High-risk on the numbers1y model -20.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Mahindra Logistics (MAHLOG) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MAHLOG a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Mahindra Logistics (MAHLOG) trades at ₹370,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100.

On the numbers, Mahindra Logistics (MAHLOG) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100, weighing expensive at 1455.0× earnings, ROE of 0.3%, a 26% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MAHLOG fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3,665 Cr
Current price
₹370
P/E ratio
1455.0×
P/B ratio
3.14×
Book value
₹118
Dividend yield
0.68%
ROCE
7.3%
ROE
0.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MAHLOG overvalued? MAHLOG P/E vs its sector

MAHLOG's P/E of 1455.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.68% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

MAHLOG P/E
1455.0×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
MAHLOG div yield
0.68%
Peer median yield
1.65%

MAHLOG share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MAHLOG history (-16%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MAHLOG 2027₹175₹282₹454-21%
MAHLOG 2028₹114₹222₹440-38%
MAHLOG 2029₹79₹178₹400-50%
MAHLOG 2030₹55₹142₹364-60%
MAHLOG 2031₹39₹112₹325-69%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MAHLOG goes up, or doubles?

26%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
8%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹710 within 5 years

The bull case for MAHLOG

  • Mahindra Logistics is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹400.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 1455.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Return on equity is a soft 0.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 26% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹79.

MAHLOG volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MAHLOG compounded at -16%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹175₹454, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MAHLOG price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
20.6%
80% range₹175–₹454
P(price ↑)26%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
49.9%
80% range₹79–₹400
P(price ↑)14%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
68.5%
80% range₹39–₹325
P(price ↑)8%
P(price 2×)1%

MAHLOG price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MAHLOG simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MAHLOG hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MAHLOG price target & forecast page.

MAHLOG Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MAHLOG scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MAHLOG MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MAHLOG with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.2%3.0×
DhanCHEAPEST33.2%3.0×

Compare every broker on the MAHLOG MTF page.

MAHLOG vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MAHLOG (this stock)1455.0×0.68%₹3,665 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Mahindra Logistics: sector, index & market-cap context

Mahindra Logistics (MAHLOG) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,665 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the MAHLOG Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Mahindra Logistics's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MAHLOG analysis, FAQs

Is Mahindra Logistics (MAHLOG) a good buy?

On the numbers, Mahindra Logistics (MAHLOG) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100, weighing expensive at 1455.0× earnings, ROE of 0.3%, a 26% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MAHLOG overvalued or undervalued?

MAHLOG trades at 1455.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the MAHLOG share price target for 2031?

MAHLOG's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹112, with an 80% range of ₹39₹325 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MAHLOG doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MAHLOG reaching ₹710 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for MAHLOG?

Mahindra Logistics is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in MAHLOG?

A rich 1455.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 0.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 26% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on MAHLOG