Case study

MAITHANALL

Maithan Alloys

Mixed signals1y model -11.1%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Maithan Alloys (MAITHANALL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MAITHANALL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Maithan Alloys (MAITHANALL) trades at ₹1,059,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100.

On the numbers, Maithan Alloys (MAITHANALL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.1× earnings, ROE of 11.0%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MAITHANALL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3,084 Cr
Current price
₹1,059
P/E ratio
7.1×
P/B ratio
0.74×
Book value
₹1,424
Dividend yield
1.51%
ROCE
14.8%
ROE
11.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MAITHANALL overvalued? MAITHANALL P/E vs its sector

MAITHANALL's P/E of 7.1× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 1.51% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

MAITHANALL P/E
7.1×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
MAITHANALL div yield
1.51%
Peer median yield
1.65%

MAITHANALL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MAITHANALL history (-5%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MAITHANALL 2027₹618₹987₹1,600-11%
MAITHANALL 2028₹445₹877₹1,715-21%
MAITHANALL 2029₹339₹777₹1,753-30%
MAITHANALL 2030₹268₹683₹1,768-39%
MAITHANALL 2031₹211₹604₹1,760-46%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MAITHANALL goes up, or doubles?

37%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
23%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
6%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,222 within 5 years

The bull case for MAITHANALL

  • Trades at just 7.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 0.74×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,753.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 11.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹339.

MAITHANALL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MAITHANALL compounded at -5%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹618₹1,600, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MAITHANALL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
11.1%
80% range₹618–₹1,600
P(price ↑)37%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
30.1%
80% range₹339–₹1,753
P(price ↑)29%
P(price 2×)5%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
45.6%
80% range₹211–₹1,760
P(price ↑)23%
P(price 2×)6%

MAITHANALL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MAITHANALL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MAITHANALL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MAITHANALL price target & forecast page.

MAITHANALL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MAITHANALL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MAITHANALL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MAITHANALL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.6%3.0×
Dhan40.0%2.5×

Compare every broker on the MAITHANALL MTF page.

MAITHANALL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MAITHANALL (this stock)7.1×1.51%₹3,084 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Maithan Alloys: sector, index & market-cap context

Maithan Alloys (MAITHANALL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,084 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the MAITHANALL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Maithan Alloys's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MAITHANALL analysis, FAQs

Is Maithan Alloys (MAITHANALL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Maithan Alloys (MAITHANALL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.1× earnings, ROE of 11.0%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MAITHANALL overvalued or undervalued?

MAITHANALL trades at 7.1× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the MAITHANALL share price target for 2031?

MAITHANALL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹604, with an 80% range of ₹211₹1,760 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MAITHANALL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MAITHANALL reaching ₹2,222 (2×) within 5 years is 6%.

What is the bull case for MAITHANALL?

Trades at just 7.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 0.74×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in MAITHANALL?

Return on equity is a soft 11.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on MAITHANALL