Case study

MANAPPURAM

Manappuram Finance

Mixed signals1y model +19.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Manappuram Finance (MANAPPURAM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MANAPPURAM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Manappuram Finance (MANAPPURAM) trades at ₹327,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100.

On the numbers, Manappuram Finance (MANAPPURAM) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing premium at 30.7× earnings, ROE of 7.0%, a 69% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MANAPPURAM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹30,769 Cr
Current price
₹327
P/E ratio
30.7×
P/B ratio
1.91×
Book value
₹171
Dividend yield
1.07%
ROCE
8.3%
ROE
7.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MANAPPURAM overvalued? MANAPPURAM P/E vs its sector

MANAPPURAM's P/E of 30.7× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.07% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

MANAPPURAM P/E
30.7×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
MANAPPURAM div yield
1.07%
Peer median yield
1.65%

MANAPPURAM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MANAPPURAM history (25%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MANAPPURAM 2027₹239₹380₹610+19%
MANAPPURAM 2028₹239₹463₹902+45%
MANAPPURAM 2029₹249₹557₹1,252+75%
MANAPPURAM 2030₹264₹672₹1,701+111%
MANAPPURAM 2031₹288₹816₹2,336+156%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MANAPPURAM goes up, or doubles?

69%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
88%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
62%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹637 within 5 years

The bull case for MANAPPURAM

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 69% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹380 (+19%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,252.

The bear case & risks

  • At 30.7× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Return on equity is a soft 7.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹249.

MANAPPURAM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MANAPPURAM compounded at 25%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹239₹610, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MANAPPURAM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
19.3%
80% range₹239–₹610
P(price ↑)69%
P(price 2×)8%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
74.8%
80% range₹249–₹1,252
P(price ↑)81%
P(price 2×)41%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
155.9%
80% range₹288–₹2,336
P(price ↑)88%
P(price 2×)62%

MANAPPURAM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MANAPPURAM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MANAPPURAM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MANAPPURAM price target & forecast page.

MANAPPURAM Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MANAPPURAM scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MANAPPURAM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MANAPPURAM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox32.0%3.1×
Zerodha27.3%3.7×
DhanCHEAPEST25.0%4.0×

Compare every broker on the MANAPPURAM MTF page.

MANAPPURAM vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MANAPPURAM (this stock)30.7×1.07%₹30,769 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Manappuram Finance: sector, index & market-cap context

Manappuram Finance (MANAPPURAM) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹30,769 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the MANAPPURAM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Manappuram Finance's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MANAPPURAM analysis, FAQs

Is Manappuram Finance (MANAPPURAM) a good buy?

On the numbers, Manappuram Finance (MANAPPURAM) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 47/100, weighing premium at 30.7× earnings, ROE of 7.0%, a 69% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MANAPPURAM overvalued or undervalued?

MANAPPURAM trades at 30.7× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the MANAPPURAM share price target for 2031?

MANAPPURAM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹816, with an 80% range of ₹288₹2,336 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MANAPPURAM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MANAPPURAM reaching ₹637 (2×) within 5 years is 62%.

What is the bull case for MANAPPURAM?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 69% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹380 (+19%).

What are the risks in MANAPPURAM?

At 30.7× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 7.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.

More on MANAPPURAM