MARATHON
Marathon Nextgen Realt
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Marathon Nextgen Realt (MARATHON) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MARATHON a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Marathon Nextgen Realt (MARATHON) trades at ₹405,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100.
On the numbers, Marathon Nextgen Realt (MARATHON) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.3× earnings, ROE of 11.8%, a 25% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MARATHON fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is MARATHON overvalued? MARATHON P/E vs its sector
MARATHON's P/E of 13.3× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.25% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
MARATHON share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MARATHON history (-19%/yr drift, 44%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARATHON 2027 | ₹170 | ₹297 | ₹523 | -25% |
| MARATHON 2028 | ₹101 | ₹224 | ₹489 | -44% |
| MARATHON 2029 | ₹63 | ₹166 | ₹444 | -58% |
| MARATHON 2030 | ₹40 | ₹125 | ₹384 | -69% |
| MARATHON 2031 | ₹26 | ₹95 | ₹336 | -76% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MARATHON goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MARATHON
- Trades at just 13.3× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 1.20×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹444.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 11.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 25% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹63.
MARATHON volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years MARATHON compounded at -19%/year with annualized volatility of 44%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹170–₹523, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MARATHON price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MARATHON price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MARATHON hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MARATHON price target & forecast page.
MARATHON Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MARATHON scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
MARATHON MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MARATHON with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 35.4% | 2.8× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 35.4% | 2.8× |
| Dhan | 40.0% | 2.5× |
Compare every broker on the MARATHON MTF page.
MARATHON vs peers,sector comparison
About Marathon Nextgen Realt: sector, index & market-cap context
Marathon Nextgen Realt (MARATHON) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,726 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the MARATHON Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Marathon Nextgen Realt's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MARATHON analysis, FAQs
Is Marathon Nextgen Realt (MARATHON) a good buy?
On the numbers, Marathon Nextgen Realt (MARATHON) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.3× earnings, ROE of 11.8%, a 25% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MARATHON overvalued or undervalued?
MARATHON trades at 13.3× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the MARATHON share price target for 2031?
MARATHON's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹95, with an 80% range of ₹26–₹336 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MARATHON doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MARATHON reaching ₹797 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.
What is the bull case for MARATHON?
Trades at just 13.3× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.20×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in MARATHON?
Return on equity is a soft 11.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 25% chance of finishing above today's price.