Case study

MARATHON

Marathon Nextgen Realt

Mixed signals1y model -25.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Marathon Nextgen Realt (MARATHON) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MARATHON a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Marathon Nextgen Realt (MARATHON) trades at ₹405,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100.

On the numbers, Marathon Nextgen Realt (MARATHON) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.3× earnings, ROE of 11.8%, a 25% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MARATHON fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,726 Cr
Current price
₹405
P/E ratio
13.3×
P/B ratio
1.20×
Book value
₹337
Dividend yield
0.25%
ROCE
12.5%
ROE
11.8%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MARATHON overvalued? MARATHON P/E vs its sector

MARATHON's P/E of 13.3× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.25% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

MARATHON P/E
13.3×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
MARATHON div yield
0.25%
Peer median yield
1.65%

MARATHON share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MARATHON history (-19%/yr drift, 44%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MARATHON 2027₹170₹297₹523-25%
MARATHON 2028₹101₹224₹489-44%
MARATHON 2029₹63₹166₹444-58%
MARATHON 2030₹40₹125₹384-69%
MARATHON 2031₹26₹95₹336-76%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MARATHON goes up, or doubles?

25%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
7%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
2%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹797 within 5 years

The bull case for MARATHON

  • Trades at just 13.3× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.20×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹444.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 11.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 25% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹63.

MARATHON volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MARATHON compounded at -19%/year with annualized volatility of 44%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹170₹523, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MARATHON price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
25.4%
80% range₹170–₹523
P(price ↑)25%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
58.2%
80% range₹63–₹444
P(price ↑)13%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
76.2%
80% range₹26–₹336
P(price ↑)7%
P(price 2×)2%

MARATHON price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MARATHON simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MARATHON hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MARATHON price target & forecast page.

MARATHON Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MARATHON scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MARATHON MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MARATHON with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST35.4%2.8×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST35.4%2.8×
Dhan40.0%2.5×

Compare every broker on the MARATHON MTF page.

MARATHON vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MARATHON (this stock)13.3×0.25%₹2,726 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Marathon Nextgen Realt: sector, index & market-cap context

Marathon Nextgen Realt (MARATHON) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,726 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the MARATHON Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Marathon Nextgen Realt's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MARATHON analysis, FAQs

Is Marathon Nextgen Realt (MARATHON) a good buy?

On the numbers, Marathon Nextgen Realt (MARATHON) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.3× earnings, ROE of 11.8%, a 25% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MARATHON overvalued or undervalued?

MARATHON trades at 13.3× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the MARATHON share price target for 2031?

MARATHON's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹95, with an 80% range of ₹26₹336 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MARATHON doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MARATHON reaching ₹797 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.

What is the bull case for MARATHON?

Trades at just 13.3× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.20×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in MARATHON?

Return on equity is a soft 11.8%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 25% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on MARATHON