Case study

MCX

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited

Mixed signals1y model +5.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

52Score

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MCX a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) trades at ₹2,638,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.

On the numbers, Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing expensive at 43.6× earnings, ROE of 56.3%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MCX fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹67,267 Cr
Current price
₹2,638
P/E ratio
43.6×
P/B ratio
23.55×
Book value
₹112
Dividend yield
0.30%
ROCE
71.4%
ROE
56.3%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How MCX ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold promoter holding or debt-to-equity ratio figures for MCX, as of 9 Aug 2026, so those are not ranked here.

Is MCX overvalued? MCX P/E vs peers

MCX trades at 43.6× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

MCX share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of MCX history (26%/yr drift, 39%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MCX 2027₹1,716₹2,770₹4,471+5%
MCX 2028₹1,456₹2,908₹5,808+10%
MCX 2029₹1,294₹3,053₹7,203+16%
MCX 2030₹1,190₹3,205₹8,637+22%
MCX 2031₹1,098₹3,365₹10,310+28%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MCX goes up, or doubles?

55%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
61%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
30%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹5,276 within 5 years

The bull case for MCX

  • MCX's return on equity of 56.3% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • MCX's return on capital employed of 71.4% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹7,203.

The bear case & risks

  • MCX's P/E of 43.6x is lower than 30% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 23.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,294.

MCX volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years MCX compounded at 26%/year with annualized volatility of 39%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,716-₹4,471, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MCX price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
5.0%
80% range₹1,716-₹4,471
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
15.7%
80% range₹1,294-₹7,203
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
27.6%
80% range₹1,098-₹10,310
P(price ↑)61%
P(price 2×)30%

MCX price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MCX simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MCX hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MCX price target & forecast page.

MCX Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. MCX scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

MCX MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MCX with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox30.08%3.3×
Zerodha28.60%3.5×
Groww28.63%3.5×
DhanCHEAPEST26.54%3.8×
Paytm Money26.81%3.7×
Pocketful33.96%2.9×
Anand Rathi33.54%3.0×
Bajaj Broking28.00%3.6×
Share India33.61%3.0×

Compare every broker on the MCX MTF page.

About Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹67,267 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the MCX Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MCX analysis, FAQs

Is Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) a good buy?

On the numbers, Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing expensive at 43.6× earnings, ROE of 56.3%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MCX overvalued or undervalued?

MCX trades at 43.6× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the MCX share price target for 2031?

MCX's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹3,365, with an 80% range of ₹1,098-₹10,310 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MCX doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MCX reaching ₹5,276 (2×) within 5 years is 30%.

What is the bull case for MCX?

MCX's return on equity of 56.3% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. MCX's return on capital employed of 71.4% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in MCX?

MCX's P/E of 43.6x is lower than 30% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 23.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on MCX