Case study

METROBRAND

Metro Brands

Mixed signals1y model -12.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Metro Brands (METROBRAND) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is METROBRAND a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Metro Brands (METROBRAND) trades at ₹1,044,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100.

On the numbers, Metro Brands (METROBRAND) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing expensive at 69.2× earnings, ROE of 22.2%, a 32% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

METROBRAND fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹28,460 Cr
Current price
₹1,044
P/E ratio
69.2×
P/B ratio
14.28×
Book value
₹73
Dividend yield
0.53%
ROCE
20.2%
ROE
22.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is METROBRAND overvalued? METROBRAND P/E vs its sector

METROBRAND's P/E of 69.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.53% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

METROBRAND P/E
69.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
METROBRAND div yield
0.53%
Peer median yield
1.65%

METROBRAND share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of METROBRAND history (-9%/yr drift, 30%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
METROBRAND 2027₹622₹903₹1,322-13%
METROBRAND 2028₹469₹788₹1,341-24%
METROBRAND 2029₹360₹690₹1,325-34%
METROBRAND 2030₹278₹601₹1,291-42%
METROBRAND 2031₹227₹525₹1,250-49%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability METROBRAND goes up, or doubles?

32%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
15%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
2%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,075 within 5 years

The bull case for METROBRAND

  • High return on equity (22.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (20.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,325.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 69.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 14.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 32% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹360.

METROBRAND volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years METROBRAND compounded at -9%/year with annualized volatility of 30%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹622₹1,322, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

METROBRAND price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
12.9%
80% range₹622–₹1,322
P(price ↑)32%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
33.5%
80% range₹360–₹1,325
P(price ↑)21%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
49.4%
80% range₹227–₹1,250
P(price ↑)15%
P(price 2×)2%

METROBRAND price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
METROBRAND simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds METROBRAND hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the METROBRAND price target & forecast page.

METROBRAND Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. METROBRAND scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

METROBRAND MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy METROBRAND with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST29.9%3.3×
Dhan30.0%3.3×

Compare every broker on the METROBRAND MTF page.

Which ace investors hold METROBRAND?

Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):

METROBRAND vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
METROBRAND (this stock)69.2×0.53%₹28,460 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Metro Brands: sector, index & market-cap context

Metro Brands (METROBRAND) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹28,460 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the METROBRAND Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Metro Brands's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

METROBRAND analysis, FAQs

Is Metro Brands (METROBRAND) a good buy?

On the numbers, Metro Brands (METROBRAND) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing expensive at 69.2× earnings, ROE of 22.2%, a 32% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is METROBRAND overvalued or undervalued?

METROBRAND trades at 69.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the METROBRAND share price target for 2031?

METROBRAND's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹525, with an 80% range of ₹227₹1,250 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability METROBRAND doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of METROBRAND reaching ₹2,075 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.

What is the bull case for METROBRAND?

High return on equity (22.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (20.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in METROBRAND?

A rich 69.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 14.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 32% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on METROBRAND