MHRIL
Mahindra Holidays
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Mahindra Holidays (MHRIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MHRIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Mahindra Holidays (MHRIL) trades at ₹243,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 19/100.
On the numbers, Mahindra Holidays (MHRIL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 19/100, weighing expensive at 65.6× earnings, ROE of 9.6%, a 9% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MHRIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is MHRIL overvalued? MHRIL P/E vs its sector
MHRIL's P/E of 65.6× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
MHRIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MHRIL history (-37%/yr drift, 30%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MHRIL 2027 | ₹106 | ₹156 | ₹229 | -34% |
| MHRIL 2028 | ₹59 | ₹103 | ₹178 | -56% |
| MHRIL 2029 | ₹35 | ₹68 | ₹133 | -71% |
| MHRIL 2030 | ₹21 | ₹45 | ₹96 | -81% |
| MHRIL 2031 | ₹13 | ₹30 | ₹70 | -87% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MHRIL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MHRIL
- Mahindra Holidays is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹133.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 65.6× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 9.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 9% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹35.
MHRIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years MHRIL compounded at -37%/year with annualized volatility of 30%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹106–₹229, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MHRIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MHRIL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MHRIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MHRIL price target & forecast page.
MHRIL Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MHRIL scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
MHRIL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MHRIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.0% | 2.9× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 29.9% | 3.3× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 29.9% | 3.3× |
Compare every broker on the MHRIL MTF page.
MHRIL vs peers,sector comparison
About Mahindra Holidays: sector, index & market-cap context
Mahindra Holidays (MHRIL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹4,907 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the MHRIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Mahindra Holidays's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MHRIL analysis, FAQs
Is Mahindra Holidays (MHRIL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Mahindra Holidays (MHRIL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 19/100, weighing expensive at 65.6× earnings, ROE of 9.6%, a 9% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MHRIL overvalued or undervalued?
MHRIL trades at 65.6× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the MHRIL share price target for 2031?
MHRIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹30, with an 80% range of ₹13–₹70 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MHRIL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MHRIL reaching ₹470 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for MHRIL?
Mahindra Holidays is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in MHRIL?
A rich 65.6× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 9.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.