Case study

MODIS

MODIS

Mixed signals1y model -24.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

MODIS (MODIS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MODIS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

MODIS (MODIS) trades at ₹346,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100.

On the numbers, MODIS (MODIS) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.2× earnings, ROE of 23.6%, a 21% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MODIS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹676 Cr
Current price
₹346
P/E ratio
23.2×
P/B ratio
4.33×
Book value
₹80
ROCE
29.6%
ROE
23.6%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is MODIS overvalued? MODIS P/E vs its sector

MODIS's P/E of 23.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

MODIS P/E
23.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
Peer median yield
1.66%

MODIS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 0.6y of MODIS history (-22%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MODIS 2027₹169₹263₹414-24%
MODIS 2028₹106₹202₹375-42%
MODIS 2029₹70₹151₹326-57%
MODIS 2030₹46₹114₹275-67%
MODIS 2031₹32₹85₹228-76%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MODIS goes up, or doubles?

21%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
4%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹696 within 5 years

The bull case for MODIS

  • A 23.2× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • High return on equity (23.6%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (29.6%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹326.

The bear case & risks

  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 21% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹70.

MODIS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 0.6 years MODIS compounded at -22%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹169₹414, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MODIS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 0.6 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
24.5%
80% range₹169–₹414
P(price ↑)21%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
56.6%
80% range₹70–₹326
P(price ↑)8%
P(price 2×)1%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
75.5%
80% range₹32–₹228
P(price ↑)4%
P(price 2×)0%

MODIS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MODIS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MODIS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MODIS price target & forecast page.

MODIS Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MODIS scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

MODIS MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MODIS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
ZerodhaCHEAPEST50.0%2.0×

Compare every broker on the MODIS MTF page.

MODIS vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MODIS (this stock)23.2×₹676 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About MODIS: sector, index & market-cap context

MODIS (MODIS) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹676 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the MODIS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MODIS's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MODIS analysis, FAQs

Is MODIS (MODIS) a good buy?

On the numbers, MODIS (MODIS) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 54/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.2× earnings, ROE of 23.6%, a 21% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MODIS overvalued or undervalued?

MODIS trades at 23.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the MODIS share price target for 2031?

MODIS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹85, with an 80% range of ₹32₹228 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MODIS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MODIS reaching ₹696 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for MODIS?

A 23.2× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (23.6%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (29.6%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in MODIS?

A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 21% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on MODIS