MOIL
MOIL 125
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
MOIL 125 (MOIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MOIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
MOIL 125 (MOIL) trades at ₹292,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100.
On the numbers, MOIL 125 (MOIL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100, weighing expensive at 57.1× earnings, ROE of 8.3%, a 16% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MOIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is MOIL overvalued? MOIL P/E vs its sector
MOIL's P/E of 57.1× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.93% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.
MOIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MOIL history (-31%/yr drift, 41%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOIL 2027 | ₹117 | ₹198 | ₹334 | -33% |
| MOIL 2028 | ₹64 | ₹134 | ₹276 | -54% |
| MOIL 2029 | ₹37 | ₹91 | ₹224 | -69% |
| MOIL 2030 | ₹21 | ₹60 | ₹170 | -80% |
| MOIL 2031 | ₹13 | ₹41 | ₹128 | -86% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MOIL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MOIL
- MOIL 125 is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹224.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 57.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 8.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 16% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹37.
MOIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years MOIL compounded at -31%/year with annualized volatility of 41%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹117–₹334, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MOIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MOIL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MOIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MOIL price target & forecast page.
MOIL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MOIL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
MOIL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MOIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.0% | 2.9× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 34.6% | 2.9× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 34.6% | 2.9× |
Compare every broker on the MOIL MTF page.
MOIL vs peers,sector comparison
About MOIL 125: sector, index & market-cap context
MOIL 125 (MOIL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹5,937 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the MOIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MOIL 125's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MOIL analysis, FAQs
Is MOIL 125 (MOIL) a good buy?
On the numbers, MOIL 125 (MOIL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100, weighing expensive at 57.1× earnings, ROE of 8.3%, a 16% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MOIL overvalued or undervalued?
MOIL trades at 57.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the MOIL share price target for 2031?
MOIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹41, with an 80% range of ₹13–₹128 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MOIL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MOIL reaching ₹588 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for MOIL?
MOIL 125 is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in MOIL?
A rich 57.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 8.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 16% chance of finishing above today's price.