MOL
MOL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
MOL (MOL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MOL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
MOL (MOL) trades at ₹51,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 19/100.
On the numbers, MOL (MOL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 19/100, weighing expensive at 44.9× earnings, ROE of 1.9%, a 21% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MOL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is MOL overvalued? MOL P/E vs its sector
MOL's P/E of 44.9× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
MOL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MOL history (-27%/yr drift, 45%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOL 2027 | ₹20 | ₹35 | ₹61 | -30% |
| MOL 2028 | ₹11 | ₹24 | ₹54 | -51% |
| MOL 2029 | ₹7 | ₹17 | ₹44 | -66% |
| MOL 2030 | ₹4 | ₹12 | ₹36 | -76% |
| MOL 2031 | ₹2 | ₹8 | ₹29 | -84% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MOL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MOL
- Low price-to-book of 0.84×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹44.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 44.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 1.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 21% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹7.
MOL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years MOL compounded at -27%/year with annualized volatility of 45%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹20–₹61, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MOL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MOL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MOL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MOL price target & forecast page.
MOL Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MOL scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
MOL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MOL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 36.8% | 2.7× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 36.8% | 2.7× |
Compare every broker on the MOL MTF page.
MOL vs peers,sector comparison
About MOL: sector, index & market-cap context
MOL (MOL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,290 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the MOL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MOL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MOL analysis, FAQs
Is MOL (MOL) a good buy?
On the numbers, MOL (MOL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 19/100, weighing expensive at 44.9× earnings, ROE of 1.9%, a 21% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MOL overvalued or undervalued?
MOL trades at 44.9× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the MOL share price target for 2031?
MOL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹8, with an 80% range of ₹2–₹29 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MOL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MOL reaching ₹101 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.
What is the bull case for MOL?
Low price-to-book of 0.84×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in MOL?
A rich 44.9× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 1.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.