MOM50
Motilal Oswal M50 ETF
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Motilal Oswal M50 ETF (MOM50) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MOM50 a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100.
On the numbers, Motilal Oswal M50 ETF (MOM50) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MOM50 share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.9y of MOM50 history (2%/yr drift, 13%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOM50 2027 | ₹216 | ₹255 | ₹302 | +2% |
| MOM50 2028 | ₹205 | ₹259 | ₹328 | +3% |
| MOM50 2029 | ₹196 | ₹263 | ₹350 | +5% |
| MOM50 2030 | ₹191 | ₹267 | ₹373 | +6% |
| MOM50 2031 | ₹186 | ₹271 | ₹392 | +8% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MOM50 goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MOM50
- Relatively low volatility (13%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹350.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹196.
MOM50 volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 1.9 years MOM50 compounded at 2%/year with annualized volatility of 13%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹216–₹302, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MOM50 price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MOM50 price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MOM50 hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MOM50 price target & forecast page.
MOM50 MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MOM50 with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 25.0% | 4.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 20.0% | 5.0× |
Compare every broker on the MOM50 MTF page.
MOM50 vs peers,sector comparison
About Motilal Oswal M50 ETF: sector, index & market-cap context
Motilal Oswal M50 ETF (MOM50) is an NSE-listed company.
How the MOM50 Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Motilal Oswal M50 ETF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MOM50 analysis, FAQs
Is Motilal Oswal M50 ETF (MOM50) a good buy?
On the numbers, Motilal Oswal M50 ETF (MOM50) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 53/100, weighing a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MOM50 overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for MOM50 are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the MOM50 share price target for 2031?
MOM50's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹271, with an 80% range of ₹186–₹392 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MOM50 doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MOM50 reaching ₹503 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.
What is the bull case for MOM50?
Relatively low volatility (13%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
What are the risks in MOM50?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.