MONTECARLO
MONTECARLO
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
MONTECARLO (MONTECARLO) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MONTECARLO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
MONTECARLO (MONTECARLO) trades at ₹567,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100.
On the numbers, MONTECARLO (MONTECARLO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.5× earnings, ROE of 12.9%, a 39% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MONTECARLO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is MONTECARLO overvalued? MONTECARLO P/E vs its sector
MONTECARLO's P/E of 10.5× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 3.53% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.
MONTECARLO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MONTECARLO history (-3%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONTECARLO 2027 | ₹319 | ₹506 | ₹814 | -10% |
| MONTECARLO 2028 | ₹234 | ₹457 | ₹894 | -18% |
| MONTECARLO 2029 | ₹180 | ₹413 | ₹936 | -26% |
| MONTECARLO 2030 | ₹144 | ₹374 | ₹975 | -33% |
| MONTECARLO 2031 | ₹115 | ₹335 | ₹980 | -40% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MONTECARLO goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MONTECARLO
- Trades at just 10.5× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 1.30×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- A healthy 12.9% return on equity.
- Pays a 3.5% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹936.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 39% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹180.
MONTECARLO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years MONTECARLO compounded at -3%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹319–₹814, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MONTECARLO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MONTECARLO price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MONTECARLO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MONTECARLO price target & forecast page.
MONTECARLO Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MONTECARLO scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
MONTECARLO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MONTECARLO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 31.8% | 3.1× |
| Dhan | 40.0% | 2.5× |
Compare every broker on the MONTECARLO MTF page.
MONTECARLO vs peers,sector comparison
About MONTECARLO: sector, index & market-cap context
MONTECARLO (MONTECARLO) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,175 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the MONTECARLO Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MONTECARLO's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MONTECARLO analysis, FAQs
Is MONTECARLO (MONTECARLO) a good buy?
On the numbers, MONTECARLO (MONTECARLO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.5× earnings, ROE of 12.9%, a 39% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MONTECARLO overvalued or undervalued?
MONTECARLO trades at 10.5× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the MONTECARLO share price target for 2031?
MONTECARLO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹335, with an 80% range of ₹115–₹980 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MONTECARLO doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MONTECARLO reaching ₹1,121 (2×) within 5 years is 7%.
What is the bull case for MONTECARLO?
Trades at just 10.5× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.30×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. A healthy 12.9% return on equity.
What are the risks in MONTECARLO?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 39% chance of finishing above today's price.