Case study

MOTHERSON

Samvardhana Motherson Intl

Tread carefully1y model +1.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Samvardhana Motherson Intl (MOTHERSON) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MOTHERSON a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Samvardhana Motherson Intl (MOTHERSON) trades at ₹146,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100.

On the numbers, Samvardhana Motherson Intl (MOTHERSON) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100, weighing premium at 37.2× earnings, ROE of 10.9%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MOTHERSON fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.54L Cr
Current price
₹146
P/E ratio
37.2×
P/B ratio
3.76×
Book value
₹39
Dividend yield
0.41%
ROCE
13.1%
ROE
10.9%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MOTHERSON overvalued? MOTHERSON P/E vs its Auto Ancillary

MOTHERSON's P/E of 37.2× sits above the Auto Ancillary peer median of 17.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.41% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.27%.

MOTHERSON P/E
37.2×
Peer median P/E
17.9×
MOTHERSON div yield
0.41%
Peer median yield
1.27%

MOTHERSON share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MOTHERSON history (8%/yr drift, 36%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MOTHERSON 2027₹93₹148₹233+1%
MOTHERSON 2028₹78₹149₹284+2%
MOTHERSON 2029₹69₹151₹338+3%
MOTHERSON 2030₹61₹152₹384+5%
MOTHERSON 2031₹57₹155₹434+6%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MOTHERSON goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
53%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
21%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹291 within 5 years

The bull case for MOTHERSON

  • Samvardhana Motherson Intl is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹338.

The bear case & risks

  • At 37.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Return on equity is a soft 10.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹69.

MOTHERSON volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MOTHERSON compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 36%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹93₹233, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MOTHERSON price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.4%
80% range₹93–₹233
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
3.4%
80% range₹69–₹338
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)15%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
6.2%
80% range₹57–₹434
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)21%

MOTHERSON price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MOTHERSON simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MOTHERSON hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MOTHERSON price target & forecast page.

MOTHERSON Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MOTHERSON scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MOTHERSON MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MOTHERSON with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox32.1%3.1×
Zerodha27.4%3.6×
DhanCHEAPEST25.1%4.0×

Compare every broker on the MOTHERSON MTF page.

MOTHERSON vs peers,Auto Ancillary comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MOTHERSON (this stock)37.2×0.41%₹1.54L Cr
BOSCHLTD50.5×1.27%₹1.19L Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr

About Samvardhana Motherson Intl: sector, index & market-cap context

Samvardhana Motherson Intl (MOTHERSON) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the Auto Ancillary sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.54L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the MOTHERSON Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Samvardhana Motherson Intl's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MOTHERSON analysis, FAQs

Is Samvardhana Motherson Intl (MOTHERSON) a good buy?

On the numbers, Samvardhana Motherson Intl (MOTHERSON) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100, weighing premium at 37.2× earnings, ROE of 10.9%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MOTHERSON overvalued or undervalued?

MOTHERSON trades at 37.2× earnings versus a peer median of 17.9×, so it screens richer than its Auto Ancillary peers.

What is the MOTHERSON share price target for 2031?

MOTHERSON's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹155, with an 80% range of ₹57₹434 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MOTHERSON doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MOTHERSON reaching ₹291 (2×) within 5 years is 21%.

What is the bull case for MOTHERSON?

Samvardhana Motherson Intl is part of the nifty50 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in MOTHERSON?

At 37.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 10.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.

More on MOTHERSON