Case study

MPSLTD

MPS

Worth a closer look1y model -14.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

MPS (MPSLTD) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MPSLTD a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

MPS (MPSLTD) trades at ₹1,801,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.

On the numbers, MPS (MPSLTD) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.4× earnings, ROE of 31.2%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MPSLTD fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3,084 Cr
Current price
₹1,801
P/E ratio
18.4×
P/B ratio
5.16×
Book value
₹349
Dividend yield
4.61%
ROCE
39.3%
ROE
31.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MPSLTD overvalued? MPSLTD P/E vs its sector

MPSLTD's P/E of 18.4× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 4.61% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.

MPSLTD P/E
18.4×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
MPSLTD div yield
4.61%
Peer median yield
1.67%

MPSLTD share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MPSLTD history (-5%/yr drift, 47%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MPSLTD 2027₹834₹1,543₹2,802-15%
MPSLTD 2028₹551₹1,307₹3,052-28%
MPSLTD 2029₹383₹1,104₹3,151-39%
MPSLTD 2030₹285₹966₹3,125-47%
MPSLTD 2031₹210₹821₹3,024-55%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MPSLTD goes up, or doubles?

37%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
22%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
7%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹3,624 within 5 years

The bull case for MPSLTD

  • A 18.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • High return on equity (31.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (39.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Pays a 4.6% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,151.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹383.

MPSLTD volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MPSLTD compounded at -5%/year with annualized volatility of 47%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹834₹2,802, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MPSLTD price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
14.9%
80% range₹834–₹2,802
P(price ↑)37%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
39.1%
80% range₹383–₹3,151
P(price ↑)27%
P(price 2×)7%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
54.7%
80% range₹210–₹3,024
P(price ↑)22%
P(price 2×)7%

MPSLTD price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MPSLTD simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MPSLTD hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MPSLTD price target & forecast page.

MPSLTD Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MPSLTD scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MPSLTD MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MPSLTD with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST36.2%2.8×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST36.2%2.8×
DhanCHEAPEST36.2%2.8×

Compare every broker on the MPSLTD MTF page.

MPSLTD vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MPSLTD (this stock)18.4×4.61%₹3,084 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About MPS: sector, index & market-cap context

MPS (MPSLTD) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,084 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the MPSLTD Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MPS's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MPSLTD analysis, FAQs

Is MPS (MPSLTD) a good buy?

On the numbers, MPS (MPSLTD) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.4× earnings, ROE of 31.2%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MPSLTD overvalued or undervalued?

MPSLTD trades at 18.4× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the MPSLTD share price target for 2031?

MPSLTD's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹821, with an 80% range of ₹210₹3,024 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MPSLTD doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MPSLTD reaching ₹3,624 (2×) within 5 years is 7%.

What is the bull case for MPSLTD?

A 18.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (31.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (39.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in MPSLTD?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on MPSLTD