Case study

MRF

Mrf Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +9.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

68Score

Mrf Limited (MRF) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MRF a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Mrf Limited (MRF) trades at ₹1,34,190,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100.

On the numbers, Mrf Limited (MRF) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.0× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 66% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MRF fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹56,912 Cr
Current price
₹1,34,190
P/E ratio
23.0×
P/B ratio
2.71×
Book value
₹49,455
Dividend yield
0.18%
ROCE
15.7%
ROE
12.5%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How MRF ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is MRF overvalued? MRF P/E vs peers

MRF trades at 23.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

MRF share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of MRF history (13%/yr drift, 23%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MRF 2027₹1,09,950₹1,47,177₹1,97,009+10%
MRF 2028₹1,06,904₹1,61,421₹2,43,738+20%
MRF 2029₹1,06,813₹1,77,043₹2,93,449+32%
MRF 2030₹1,09,247₹1,94,177₹3,45,133+45%
MRF 2031₹1,11,364₹2,12,970₹4,07,279+59%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MRF goes up, or doubles?

66%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
82%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
33%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,68,380 within 5 years

The bull case for MRF

  • MRF's P/E of 23.0x is lower than 57% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • MRF's return on equity of 12.5% ranks in the 61st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 66% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,47,177 (+10%).
  • Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,93,449.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,06,813.

MRF volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years MRF compounded at 13%/year with annualized volatility of 23%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,09,950-₹1,97,009, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MRF price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
9.7%
80% range₹1,09,950-₹1,97,009
P(price ↑)66%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
31.9%
80% range₹1,06,813-₹2,93,449
P(price ↑)76%
P(price 2×)14%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
58.7%
80% range₹1,11,364-₹4,07,279
P(price ↑)82%
P(price 2×)33%

MRF price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MRF simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MRF hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MRF price target & forecast page.

MRF Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. MRF scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

MRF MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MRF with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox26.88%3.7×
Zerodha26.85%3.7×
Groww26.95%3.7×
DhanCHEAPEST26.85%3.7×
Kotak Neo26.88%3.7×
Paytm Money27.27%3.7×
Pocketful27.13%3.7×
Fyers27.03%3.7×
Anand Rathi26.85%3.7×
Bajaj Broking28.00%3.6×
Share India26.93%3.7×

Compare every broker on the MRF MTF page.

About Mrf Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Mrf Limited (MRF) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹56,912 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the MRF Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Mrf Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MRF analysis, FAQs

Is Mrf Limited (MRF) a good buy?

On the numbers, Mrf Limited (MRF) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 68/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.0× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 66% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MRF overvalued or undervalued?

MRF trades at 23.0× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the MRF share price target for 2031?

MRF's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,12,970, with an 80% range of ₹1,11,364-₹4,07,279 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MRF doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MRF reaching ₹2,68,380 (2×) within 5 years is 33%.

What is the bull case for MRF?

MRF's P/E of 23.0x is lower than 57% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. MRF's return on equity of 12.5% ranks in the 61st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 66% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,47,177 (+10%).

What are the risks in MRF?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on MRF