Case study

MRF

MRF

Worth a closer look1y model -1.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

MRF (MRF) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MRF a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

MRF (MRF) trades at ₹1,31,560,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100.

On the numbers, MRF (MRF) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.6× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 48% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MRF fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹55,815 Cr
Current price
₹1,31,560
P/E ratio
22.6×
P/B ratio
2.66×
Book value
₹49,455
Dividend yield
0.18%
ROCE
15.7%
ROE
12.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MRF overvalued? MRF P/E vs its sector

MRF's P/E of 22.6× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.18% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

MRF P/E
22.6×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
MRF div yield
0.18%
Peer median yield
1.65%

MRF share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MRF history (1%/yr drift, 23%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MRF 2027₹94,729₹1,26,968₹1,70,452-1%
MRF 2028₹82,606₹1,26,025₹1,89,553-2%
MRF 2029₹74,609₹1,24,907₹2,06,347-3%
MRF 2030₹68,098₹1,23,818₹2,19,484-4%
MRF 2031₹62,609₹1,21,517₹2,31,293-6%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MRF goes up, or doubles?

48%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
46%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
7%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,57,290 within 5 years

The bull case for MRF

  • A 22.6× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A healthy 12.5% return on equity.
  • Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,06,347.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹74,609.

MRF volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MRF compounded at 1%/year with annualized volatility of 23%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹94,729₹1,70,452, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MRF price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.3%
80% range₹94,729–₹1,70,452
P(price ↑)48%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
2.9%
80% range₹74,609–₹2,06,347
P(price ↑)47%
P(price 2×)3%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
5.5%
80% range₹62,609–₹2,31,293
P(price ↑)46%
P(price 2×)7%

MRF price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MRF simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MRF hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MRF price target & forecast page.

MRF Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MRF scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MRF MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MRF with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST26.8%3.7×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST26.8%3.7×
DhanCHEAPEST26.8%3.7×

Compare every broker on the MRF MTF page.

MRF vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MRF (this stock)22.6×0.18%₹55,815 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About MRF: sector, index & market-cap context

MRF (MRF) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹55,815 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the MRF Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MRF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MRF analysis, FAQs

Is MRF (MRF) a good buy?

On the numbers, MRF (MRF) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.6× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 48% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MRF overvalued or undervalued?

MRF trades at 22.6× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the MRF share price target for 2031?

MRF's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,21,517, with an 80% range of ₹62,609₹2,31,293 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MRF doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MRF reaching ₹2,57,290 (2×) within 5 years is 7%.

What is the bull case for MRF?

A 22.6× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 12.5% return on equity. Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in MRF?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on MRF