MRF
MRF
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
MRF (MRF) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MRF a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
MRF (MRF) trades at ₹1,31,560,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100.
On the numbers, MRF (MRF) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.6× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 48% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MRF fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is MRF overvalued? MRF P/E vs its sector
MRF's P/E of 22.6× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.18% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
MRF share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MRF history (1%/yr drift, 23%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRF 2027 | ₹94,729 | ₹1,26,968 | ₹1,70,452 | -1% |
| MRF 2028 | ₹82,606 | ₹1,26,025 | ₹1,89,553 | -2% |
| MRF 2029 | ₹74,609 | ₹1,24,907 | ₹2,06,347 | -3% |
| MRF 2030 | ₹68,098 | ₹1,23,818 | ₹2,19,484 | -4% |
| MRF 2031 | ₹62,609 | ₹1,21,517 | ₹2,31,293 | -6% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MRF goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MRF
- A 22.6× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- A healthy 12.5% return on equity.
- Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,06,347.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹74,609.
MRF volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years MRF compounded at 1%/year with annualized volatility of 23%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹94,729–₹1,70,452, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MRF price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MRF price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MRF hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MRF price target & forecast page.
MRF Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MRF scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
MRF MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MRF with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 26.8% | 3.7× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 26.8% | 3.7× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 26.8% | 3.7× |
Compare every broker on the MRF MTF page.
MRF vs peers,sector comparison
About MRF: sector, index & market-cap context
MRF (MRF) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹55,815 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the MRF Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MRF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MRF analysis, FAQs
Is MRF (MRF) a good buy?
On the numbers, MRF (MRF) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.6× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 48% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MRF overvalued or undervalued?
MRF trades at 22.6× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the MRF share price target for 2031?
MRF's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,21,517, with an 80% range of ₹62,609–₹2,31,293 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MRF doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MRF reaching ₹2,57,290 (2×) within 5 years is 7%.
What is the bull case for MRF?
A 22.6× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 12.5% return on equity. Relatively low volatility (23%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
What are the risks in MRF?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.