Case study

MSPL

MSP Steel & Power Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +1.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

60Score

MSP Steel & Power Limited (MSPL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MSPL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

MSP Steel & Power Limited (MSPL) trades at ₹36,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100.

On the numbers, MSP Steel & Power Limited (MSPL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.6× earnings, ROE of 13.7%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MSPL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,041 Cr
Current price
₹36
P/E ratio
14.6×
P/B ratio
1.98×
Book value
₹18
ROCE
9.7%
ROE
13.7%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How MSPL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is MSPL overvalued? MSPL P/E vs peers

MSPL trades at 14.6× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

MSPL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of MSPL history (12%/yr drift, 47%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MSPL 2027₹20₹37₹66+1%
MSPL 2028₹16₹37₹87+3%
MSPL 2029₹13₹38₹105+4%
MSPL 2030₹11₹38₹127+6%
MSPL 2031₹10₹39₹146+7%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MSPL goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
53%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹72 within 5 years

The bull case for MSPL

  • MSPL's P/E of 14.6x is lower than 75% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • MSPL's return on equity of 13.7% ranks in the 66th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹105.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹13.

MSPL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years MSPL compounded at 12%/year with annualized volatility of 47%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹20-₹66, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MSPL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.4%
80% range₹20-₹66
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)7%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
4.4%
80% range₹13-₹105
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
7.4%
80% range₹10-₹146
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)27%

MSPL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MSPL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MSPL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MSPL price target & forecast page.

MSPL Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. MSPL scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

MSPL MTF margin & leverage across 7 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MSPL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 7 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.63%2.8×
Zerodha50.00%2.0×
Dhan50.00%2.0×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Paytm Money51.63%1.9×
Pocketful50.00%2.0×
Share IndiaCHEAPEST35.45%2.8×

Compare every broker on the MSPL MTF page.

About MSP Steel & Power Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

MSP Steel & Power Limited (MSPL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,041 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the MSPL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MSP Steel & Power Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MSPL analysis, FAQs

Is MSP Steel & Power Limited (MSPL) a good buy?

On the numbers, MSP Steel & Power Limited (MSPL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 60/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.6× earnings, ROE of 13.7%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MSPL overvalued or undervalued?

MSPL trades at 14.6× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the MSPL share price target for 2031?

MSPL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹39, with an 80% range of ₹10-₹146 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MSPL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MSPL reaching ₹72 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for MSPL?

MSPL's P/E of 14.6x is lower than 75% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. MSPL's return on equity of 13.7% ranks in the 66th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in MSPL?

High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on MSPL