MSPL
MSP STEEL & POWER LTD.
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
MSP STEEL & POWER LTD. (MSPL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MSPL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
MSP STEEL & POWER LTD. (MSPL) trades at ₹45,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.
On the numbers, MSP STEEL & POWER LTD. (MSPL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.8× earnings, ROE of 13.7%, a 64% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MSPL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is MSPL overvalued? MSPL P/E vs its sector
MSPL's P/E of 18.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.
MSPL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MSPL history (27%/yr drift, 47%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSPL 2027 | ₹28 | ₹52 | ₹94 | +18% |
| MSPL 2028 | ₹26 | ₹61 | ₹143 | +38% |
| MSPL 2029 | ₹26 | ₹72 | ₹201 | +62% |
| MSPL 2030 | ₹26 | ₹85 | ₹279 | +91% |
| MSPL 2031 | ₹26 | ₹100 | ₹376 | +126% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MSPL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MSPL
- A 18.8× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- A healthy 13.7% return on equity.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 64% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹52 (+18%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹201.
The bear case & risks
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹26.
MSPL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years MSPL compounded at 27%/year with annualized volatility of 47%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹28–₹94, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MSPL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MSPL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MSPL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MSPL price target & forecast page.
MSPL Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MSPL scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
MSPL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MSPL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 35.9% | 2.8× |
| Zerodha | 50.0% | 2.0× |
| Dhan | 50.0% | 2.0× |
Compare every broker on the MSPL MTF page.
MSPL vs peers,sector comparison
About MSP STEEL & POWER LTD.: sector, index & market-cap context
MSP STEEL & POWER LTD. (MSPL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,542 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the MSPL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MSP STEEL & POWER LTD.'s public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MSPL analysis, FAQs
Is MSP STEEL & POWER LTD. (MSPL) a good buy?
On the numbers, MSP STEEL & POWER LTD. (MSPL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.8× earnings, ROE of 13.7%, a 64% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MSPL overvalued or undervalued?
MSPL trades at 18.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the MSPL share price target for 2031?
MSPL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹100, with an 80% range of ₹26–₹376 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MSPL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MSPL reaching ₹89 (2×) within 5 years is 55%.
What is the bull case for MSPL?
A 18.8× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 13.7% return on equity. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 64% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹52 (+18%).
What are the risks in MSPL?
A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.