Case study

MTARTECH

MTAR Technologies

Tread carefully1y model +87.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

MTAR Technologies (MTARTECH) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MTARTECH a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

MTAR Technologies (MTARTECH) trades at ₹8,294,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100.

On the numbers, MTAR Technologies (MTARTECH) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100, weighing expensive at 264.0× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 90% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MTARTECH fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹25,526 Cr
Current price
₹8,294
P/E ratio
264.0×
P/B ratio
31.06×
Book value
₹267
ROCE
15.1%
ROE
12.5%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is MTARTECH overvalued? MTARTECH P/E vs its sector

MTARTECH's P/E of 264.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

MTARTECH P/E
264.0×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
Peer median yield
1.66%

MTARTECH share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MTARTECH history (76%/yr drift, 49%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MTARTECH 2027₹8,414₹15,727₹29,622+88%
MTARTECH 2028₹12,177₹29,850₹72,775+256%
MTARTECH 2029₹19,073₹56,554₹1,71,799+575%
MTARTECH 2030₹30,235₹1,05,862₹3,86,890+1164%
MTARTECH 2031₹49,415₹2,02,721₹8,44,351+2321%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MTARTECH goes up, or doubles?

90%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
100%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
99%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹16,749 within 5 years

The bull case for MTARTECH

  • A healthy 12.5% return on equity.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 90% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹15,727 (+88%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,71,799.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 264.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 31.1× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹19,073.

MTARTECH volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MTARTECH compounded at 76%/year with annualized volatility of 49%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹8,414₹29,622, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MTARTECH price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
87.8%
80% range₹8,414–₹29,622
P(price ↑)90%
P(price 2×)45%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
575.3%
80% range₹19,073–₹1,71,799
P(price ↑)99%
P(price 2×)92%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
2320.7%
80% range₹49,415–₹8,44,351
P(price ↑)100%
P(price 2×)99%

MTARTECH price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MTARTECH simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MTARTECH hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MTARTECH price target & forecast page.

MTARTECH Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MTARTECH scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

MTARTECH MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MTARTECH with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
ZerodhaCHEAPEST42.2%2.4×
Groww42.3%2.4×

Compare every broker on the MTARTECH MTF page.

MTARTECH vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MTARTECH (this stock)264.0×₹25,526 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About MTAR Technologies: sector, index & market-cap context

MTAR Technologies (MTARTECH) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹25,526 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the MTARTECH Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MTAR Technologies's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MTARTECH analysis, FAQs

Is MTAR Technologies (MTARTECH) a good buy?

On the numbers, MTAR Technologies (MTARTECH) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100, weighing expensive at 264.0× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 90% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MTARTECH overvalued or undervalued?

MTARTECH trades at 264.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the MTARTECH share price target for 2031?

MTARTECH's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,02,721, with an 80% range of ₹49,415₹8,44,351 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MTARTECH doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MTARTECH reaching ₹16,749 (2×) within 5 years is 99%.

What is the bull case for MTARTECH?

A healthy 12.5% return on equity. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 90% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹15,727 (+88%).

What are the risks in MTARTECH?

A rich 264.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 31.1× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.

More on MTARTECH