MTNL
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is MTNL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL) trades at ₹28,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 32/100.
On the numbers, Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 32/100, weighing ROE of 10.0%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
MTNL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How MTNL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- MTNL's market cap of 1,752 Cr ranks in the 49th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- MTNL's book value of ₹-476 ranks in the bottom 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- MTNL's promoter holding of 56.2% ranks in the 44th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- MTNL's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of -2.0% ranks in the 27th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- MTNL's 3-year revenue growth of 1.0% ranks in the 24th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for MTNL, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.
MTNL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of MTNL history (3%/yr drift, 49%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTNL 2027 | ₹15 | ₹28 | ₹53 | +0% |
| MTNL 2028 | ₹12 | ₹28 | ₹67 | +0% |
| MTNL 2029 | ₹9 | ₹28 | ₹83 | +0% |
| MTNL 2030 | ₹8 | ₹28 | ₹99 | +0% |
| MTNL 2031 | ₹7 | ₹28 | ₹118 | +0% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability MTNL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for MTNL
- Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹83.
The bear case & risks
- MTNL's return on equity of 10.0% ranks in the 49th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- MTNL's Piotroski F-Score of 2/8 ranks in the 6th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹9.
MTNL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years MTNL compounded at 3%/year with annualized volatility of 49%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹15-₹53, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
MTNL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
MTNL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds MTNL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the MTNL price target & forecast page.
MTNL Piotroski F-Score: 2/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. MTNL scores 2/8, weak on the financial-strength checks.
MTNL MTF margin & leverage across 8 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MTNL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 8 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 37.09% | 2.7× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 37.04% | 2.7× |
| Groww | 50.00% | 2.0× |
| Dhan | 40.00% | 2.5× |
| Kotak Neo | 40.00% | 2.5× |
| Paytm Money | 40.39% | 2.5× |
| Pocketful | 37.70% | 2.7× |
| Share India | 37.25% | 2.7× |
Compare every broker on the MTNL MTF page.
About Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,752 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the MTNL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
MTNL analysis, FAQs
Is Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 32/100, weighing ROE of 10.0%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is MTNL overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for MTNL are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the MTNL share price target for 2031?
MTNL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹28, with an 80% range of ₹7-₹118 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability MTNL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of MTNL reaching ₹56 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.
What is the bull case for MTNL?
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in MTNL?
MTNL's return on equity of 10.0% ranks in the 49th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. MTNL's Piotroski F-Score of 2/8 ranks in the 6th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.