Case study

MWL

MWL

Screens attractive1y model +55.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

MWL (MWL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is MWL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

MWL (MWL) trades at ₹376,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100.

On the numbers, MWL (MWL) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.4× earnings, ROE of 18.0%, a 89% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

MWL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,120 Cr
Current price
₹376
P/E ratio
22.4×
P/B ratio
3.72×
Book value
₹101
Dividend yield
0.05%
ROCE
17.6%
ROE
18.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is MWL overvalued? MWL P/E vs its sector

MWL's P/E of 22.4× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.05% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

MWL P/E
22.4×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
MWL div yield
0.05%
Peer median yield
1.65%

MWL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of MWL history (51%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
MWL 2027₹367₹583₹939+55%
MWL 2028₹472₹910₹1,771+142%
MWL 2029₹629₹1,427₹3,218+280%
MWL 2030₹859₹2,228₹5,789+493%
MWL 2031₹1,209₹3,479₹10,178+826%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability MWL goes up, or doubles?

89%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
100%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
97%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹752 within 5 years

The bull case for MWL

  • A 22.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • High return on equity (18.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 89% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹583 (+55%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,218.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹629.

MWL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years MWL compounded at 51%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹367₹939, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

MWL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
55.2%
80% range₹367–₹939
P(price ↑)89%
P(price 2×)25%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
279.6%
80% range₹629–₹3,218
P(price ↑)98%
P(price 2×)84%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
825.6%
80% range₹1,209–₹10,178
P(price ↑)100%
P(price 2×)97%

MWL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
MWL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds MWL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the MWL price target & forecast page.

MWL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. MWL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

MWL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy MWL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
ZerodhaCHEAPEST50.0%2.0×

Compare every broker on the MWL MTF page.

MWL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
MWL (this stock)22.4×0.05%₹1,120 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About MWL: sector, index & market-cap context

MWL (MWL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,120 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the MWL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of MWL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

MWL analysis, FAQs

Is MWL (MWL) a good buy?

On the numbers, MWL (MWL) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 72/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.4× earnings, ROE of 18.0%, a 89% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is MWL overvalued or undervalued?

MWL trades at 22.4× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the MWL share price target for 2031?

MWL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹3,479, with an 80% range of ₹1,209₹10,178 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability MWL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of MWL reaching ₹752 (2×) within 5 years is 97%.

What is the bull case for MWL?

A 22.4× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (18.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 89% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹583 (+55%).

What are the risks in MWL?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on MWL