Case study

NAHARPOLY

NAHARPOLY

Mixed signals1y model -12.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

NAHARPOLY (NAHARPOLY) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NAHARPOLY a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

NAHARPOLY (NAHARPOLY) trades at ₹252,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100.

On the numbers, NAHARPOLY (NAHARPOLY) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.9× earnings, ROE of 9.4%, a 40% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NAHARPOLY fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹622 Cr
Current price
₹252
P/E ratio
7.9×
P/B ratio
0.71×
Book value
₹353
Dividend yield
0.40%
ROCE
10.7%
ROE
9.4%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is NAHARPOLY overvalued? NAHARPOLY P/E vs its sector

NAHARPOLY's P/E of 7.9× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.40% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

NAHARPOLY P/E
7.9×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
NAHARPOLY div yield
0.40%
Peer median yield
1.65%

NAHARPOLY share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NAHARPOLY history (0%/yr drift, 52%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NAHARPOLY 2027₹112₹221₹437-13%
NAHARPOLY 2028₹76₹194₹502-23%
NAHARPOLY 2029₹53₹168₹542-34%
NAHARPOLY 2030₹40₹147₹566-42%
NAHARPOLY 2031₹30₹130₹595-49%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NAHARPOLY goes up, or doubles?

40%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
29%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
13%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹505 within 5 years

The bull case for NAHARPOLY

  • Trades at just 7.9× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 0.71×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹542.

The bear case & risks

  • Return on equity is a soft 9.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 40% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (52%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹53.

NAHARPOLY volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years NAHARPOLY compounded at 0%/year with annualized volatility of 52%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹112₹437, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NAHARPOLY price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
12.7%
80% range₹112–₹437
P(price ↑)40%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
33.7%
80% range₹53–₹542
P(price ↑)33%
P(price 2×)11%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
48.7%
80% range₹30–₹595
P(price ↑)29%
P(price 2×)13%

NAHARPOLY price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NAHARPOLY simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NAHARPOLY hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NAHARPOLY price target & forecast page.

NAHARPOLY Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NAHARPOLY scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

NAHARPOLY MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NAHARPOLY with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
ZerodhaCHEAPEST50.0%2.0×

Compare every broker on the NAHARPOLY MTF page.

NAHARPOLY vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
NAHARPOLY (this stock)7.9×0.40%₹622 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About NAHARPOLY: sector, index & market-cap context

NAHARPOLY (NAHARPOLY) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹622 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the NAHARPOLY Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NAHARPOLY's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NAHARPOLY analysis, FAQs

Is NAHARPOLY (NAHARPOLY) a good buy?

On the numbers, NAHARPOLY (NAHARPOLY) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.9× earnings, ROE of 9.4%, a 40% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NAHARPOLY overvalued or undervalued?

NAHARPOLY trades at 7.9× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the NAHARPOLY share price target for 2031?

NAHARPOLY's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹130, with an 80% range of ₹30₹595 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NAHARPOLY doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NAHARPOLY reaching ₹505 (2×) within 5 years is 13%.

What is the bull case for NAHARPOLY?

Trades at just 7.9× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 0.71×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in NAHARPOLY?

Return on equity is a soft 9.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 40% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (52%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on NAHARPOLY