NATCOPHARM
Natco Pharma
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Natco Pharma (NATCOPHARM) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NATCOPHARM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Natco Pharma (NATCOPHARM) trades at ₹884,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100.
On the numbers, Natco Pharma (NATCOPHARM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.2× earnings, ROE of 16.9%, a 28% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NATCOPHARM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NATCOPHARM overvalued? NATCOPHARM P/E vs its sector
NATCOPHARM's P/E of 11.2× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.68% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
NATCOPHARM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NATCOPHARM history (-15%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATCOPHARM 2027 | ₹419 | ₹701 | ₹1,156 | -21% |
| NATCOPHARM 2028 | ₹264 | ₹548 | ₹1,159 | -38% |
| NATCOPHARM 2029 | ₹179 | ₹434 | ₹1,077 | -51% |
| NATCOPHARM 2030 | ₹123 | ₹348 | ₹960 | -61% |
| NATCOPHARM 2031 | ₹87 | ₹275 | ₹871 | -69% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NATCOPHARM goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NATCOPHARM
- Trades at just 11.2× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- A healthy 16.9% return on equity.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,077.
The bear case & risks
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 28% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹179.
NATCOPHARM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NATCOPHARM compounded at -15%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹419–₹1,156, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NATCOPHARM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NATCOPHARM price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NATCOPHARM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NATCOPHARM price target & forecast page.
NATCOPHARM Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NATCOPHARM scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
NATCOPHARM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NATCOPHARM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 34.1% | 2.9× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 34.1% | 2.9× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 34.1% | 2.9× |
Compare every broker on the NATCOPHARM MTF page.
NATCOPHARM vs peers,sector comparison
About Natco Pharma: sector, index & market-cap context
Natco Pharma (NATCOPHARM) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹15,843 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the NATCOPHARM Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Natco Pharma's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NATCOPHARM analysis, FAQs
Is Natco Pharma (NATCOPHARM) a good buy?
On the numbers, Natco Pharma (NATCOPHARM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.2× earnings, ROE of 16.9%, a 28% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NATCOPHARM overvalued or undervalued?
NATCOPHARM trades at 11.2× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the NATCOPHARM share price target for 2031?
NATCOPHARM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹275, with an 80% range of ₹87–₹871 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NATCOPHARM doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NATCOPHARM reaching ₹1,769 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.
What is the bull case for NATCOPHARM?
Trades at just 11.2× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. A healthy 16.9% return on equity.
What are the risks in NATCOPHARM?
The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 28% chance of finishing above today's price.