NATCOPHARM
Natco Pharma Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Natco Pharma Limited (NATCOPHARM) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NATCOPHARM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Natco Pharma Limited (NATCOPHARM) trades at ₹917,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100.
On the numbers, Natco Pharma Limited (NATCOPHARM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.6× earnings, ROE of 16.9%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NATCOPHARM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How NATCOPHARM ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- NATCOPHARM's market cap of 16,418 Cr ranks in the 82nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATCOPHARM's book value of ₹515 ranks in the 91st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATCOPHARM's promoter holding of 49.4% ranks in the 29th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATCOPHARM's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of 26.0% ranks in the 65th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATCOPHARM's 3-year revenue growth of 15.0% ranks in the 63rd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATCOPHARM's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08x is lower than 80% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is NATCOPHARM overvalued? NATCOPHARM P/E vs peers
NATCOPHARM trades at 11.6× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
NATCOPHARM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of NATCOPHARM history (4%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATCOPHARM 2027 | ₹567 | ₹941 | ₹1,560 | +3% |
| NATCOPHARM 2028 | ₹473 | ₹966 | ₹1,970 | +5% |
| NATCOPHARM 2029 | ₹413 | ₹991 | ₹2,378 | +8% |
| NATCOPHARM 2030 | ₹367 | ₹1,017 | ₹2,823 | +11% |
| NATCOPHARM 2031 | ₹334 | ₹1,044 | ₹3,261 | +14% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NATCOPHARM goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NATCOPHARM
- NATCOPHARM's P/E of 11.6x is lower than 83% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- NATCOPHARM's return on equity of 16.9% ranks in the 77th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,378.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹413.
NATCOPHARM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years NATCOPHARM compounded at 4%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹567-₹1,560, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NATCOPHARM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NATCOPHARM price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NATCOPHARM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NATCOPHARM price target & forecast page.
NATCOPHARM Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NATCOPHARM scores 6/8, mixed financial health.
NATCOPHARM MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NATCOPHARM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 33.15% | 3.0× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 33.11% | 3.0× |
| Groww | 33.29% | 3.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 33.11% | 3.0× |
| Kotak NeoCHEAPEST | 33.11% | 3.0× |
| Paytm Money | 33.48% | 3.0× |
| Pocketful | 33.65% | 3.0× |
| Anand RathiCHEAPEST | 33.11% | 3.0× |
| Bajaj Broking | 35.00% | 2.9× |
| Share India | 33.26% | 3.0× |
Compare every broker on the NATCOPHARM MTF page.
About Natco Pharma Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Natco Pharma Limited (NATCOPHARM) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹16,418 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the NATCOPHARM Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Natco Pharma Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NATCOPHARM analysis, FAQs
Is Natco Pharma Limited (NATCOPHARM) a good buy?
On the numbers, Natco Pharma Limited (NATCOPHARM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 11.6× earnings, ROE of 16.9%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NATCOPHARM overvalued or undervalued?
NATCOPHARM trades at 11.6× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the NATCOPHARM share price target for 2031?
NATCOPHARM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,044, with an 80% range of ₹334-₹3,261 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NATCOPHARM doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NATCOPHARM reaching ₹1,833 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.
What is the bull case for NATCOPHARM?
NATCOPHARM's P/E of 11.6x is lower than 83% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NATCOPHARM's return on equity of 16.9% ranks in the 77th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in NATCOPHARM?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.