NAVA
NAVA LIMITED
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
NAVA LIMITED (NAVA) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NAVA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
NAVA LIMITED (NAVA) trades at ₹622,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.
On the numbers, NAVA LIMITED (NAVA) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.3× earnings, ROE of 9.6%, a 63% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NAVA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NAVA overvalued? NAVA P/E vs its sector
NAVA's P/E of 22.3× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.29% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
NAVA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NAVA history (26%/yr drift, 45%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVA 2027 | ₹405 | ₹722 | ₹1,301 | +16% |
| NAVA 2028 | ₹380 | ₹844 | ₹1,947 | +36% |
| NAVA 2029 | ₹366 | ₹992 | ₹2,710 | +60% |
| NAVA 2030 | ₹363 | ₹1,149 | ₹3,701 | +85% |
| NAVA 2031 | ₹372 | ₹1,347 | ₹5,033 | +117% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NAVA goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NAVA
- A 22.3× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 63% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹722 (+16%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,710.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 9.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- High historical volatility (45%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹366.
NAVA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NAVA compounded at 26%/year with annualized volatility of 45%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹405–₹1,301, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NAVA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NAVA price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NAVA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NAVA price target & forecast page.
NAVA Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NAVA scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
NAVA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NAVA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 35.4% | 2.8× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 35.4% | 2.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 35.4% | 2.8× |
Compare every broker on the NAVA MTF page.
NAVA vs peers,sector comparison
About NAVA LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context
NAVA LIMITED (NAVA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹17,585 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the NAVA Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NAVA LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NAVA analysis, FAQs
Is NAVA LIMITED (NAVA) a good buy?
On the numbers, NAVA LIMITED (NAVA) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.3× earnings, ROE of 9.6%, a 63% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NAVA overvalued or undervalued?
NAVA trades at 22.3× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the NAVA share price target for 2031?
NAVA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,347, with an 80% range of ₹372–₹5,033 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NAVA doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NAVA reaching ₹1,243 (2×) within 5 years is 53%.
What is the bull case for NAVA?
A 22.3× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 63% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹722 (+16%).
What are the risks in NAVA?
Return on equity is a soft 9.6%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. High historical volatility (45%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.