Case study

NBCC

NBCC

Mixed signals1y model -8.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

NBCC (NBCC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NBCC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

NBCC (NBCC) trades at ₹110,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100.

On the numbers, NBCC (NBCC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing expensive at 44.8× earnings, ROE of 24.1%, a 42% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NBCC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹29,681 Cr
Current price
₹110
P/E ratio
44.8×
P/B ratio
9.82×
Book value
₹11
Dividend yield
0.61%
ROCE
31.0%
ROE
24.1%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is NBCC overvalued? NBCC P/E vs its sector

NBCC's P/E of 44.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.61% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

NBCC P/E
44.8×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
NBCC div yield
0.61%
Peer median yield
1.65%

NBCC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NBCC history (1%/yr drift, 42%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NBCC 2027₹59₹102₹177-8%
NBCC 2028₹45₹95₹206-15%
NBCC 2029₹35₹87₹226-22%
NBCC 2030₹28₹81₹240-28%
NBCC 2031₹23₹75₹248-33%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NBCC goes up, or doubles?

42%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
34%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
12%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹223 within 5 years

The bull case for NBCC

  • High return on equity (24.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (31.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹226.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 44.8× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 9.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 42% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹35.

NBCC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years NBCC compounded at 1%/year with annualized volatility of 42%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹59₹177, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NBCC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
8.3%
80% range₹59–₹177
P(price ↑)42%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
21.8%
80% range₹35–₹226
P(price ↑)37%
P(price 2×)10%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
33.1%
80% range₹23–₹248
P(price ↑)34%
P(price 2×)12%

NBCC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NBCC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NBCC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NBCC price target & forecast page.

NBCC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NBCC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

NBCC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NBCC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox34.3%2.9×
Zerodha29.3%3.4×
DhanCHEAPEST27.3%3.7×

Compare every broker on the NBCC MTF page.

NBCC vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
NBCC (this stock)44.8×0.61%₹29,681 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About NBCC: sector, index & market-cap context

NBCC (NBCC) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹29,681 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the NBCC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NBCC's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NBCC analysis, FAQs

Is NBCC (NBCC) a good buy?

On the numbers, NBCC (NBCC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing expensive at 44.8× earnings, ROE of 24.1%, a 42% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NBCC overvalued or undervalued?

NBCC trades at 44.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the NBCC share price target for 2031?

NBCC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹75, with an 80% range of ₹23₹248 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NBCC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NBCC reaching ₹223 (2×) within 5 years is 12%.

What is the bull case for NBCC?

High return on equity (24.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (31.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in NBCC?

A rich 44.8× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 9.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 42% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on NBCC