NBCC
NBCC
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
NBCC (NBCC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NBCC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
NBCC (NBCC) trades at ₹110,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100.
On the numbers, NBCC (NBCC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing expensive at 44.8× earnings, ROE of 24.1%, a 42% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NBCC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NBCC overvalued? NBCC P/E vs its sector
NBCC's P/E of 44.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.61% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
NBCC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NBCC history (1%/yr drift, 42%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBCC 2027 | ₹59 | ₹102 | ₹177 | -8% |
| NBCC 2028 | ₹45 | ₹95 | ₹206 | -15% |
| NBCC 2029 | ₹35 | ₹87 | ₹226 | -22% |
| NBCC 2030 | ₹28 | ₹81 | ₹240 | -28% |
| NBCC 2031 | ₹23 | ₹75 | ₹248 | -33% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NBCC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NBCC
- High return on equity (24.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (31.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹226.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 44.8× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 9.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 42% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹35.
NBCC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NBCC compounded at 1%/year with annualized volatility of 42%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹59–₹177, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NBCC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NBCC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NBCC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NBCC price target & forecast page.
NBCC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NBCC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
NBCC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NBCC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 34.3% | 2.9× |
| Zerodha | 29.3% | 3.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 27.3% | 3.7× |
Compare every broker on the NBCC MTF page.
NBCC vs peers,sector comparison
About NBCC: sector, index & market-cap context
NBCC (NBCC) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹29,681 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the NBCC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NBCC's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NBCC analysis, FAQs
Is NBCC (NBCC) a good buy?
On the numbers, NBCC (NBCC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 46/100, weighing expensive at 44.8× earnings, ROE of 24.1%, a 42% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NBCC overvalued or undervalued?
NBCC trades at 44.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the NBCC share price target for 2031?
NBCC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹75, with an 80% range of ₹23–₹248 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NBCC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NBCC reaching ₹223 (2×) within 5 years is 12%.
What is the bull case for NBCC?
High return on equity (24.1%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (31.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in NBCC?
A rich 44.8× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 9.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 42% chance of finishing above today's price.