NCC
NCC Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
NCC Limited (NCC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NCC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
NCC Limited (NCC) trades at ₹160,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100.
On the numbers, NCC Limited (NCC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.3× earnings, ROE of 9.2%, a 11% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NCC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NCC overvalued? NCC P/E vs its sector
NCC's P/E of 14.3× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 1.38% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
NCC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NCC history (-37%/yr drift, 36%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCC 2027 | ₹64 | ₹101 | ₹158 | -35% |
| NCC 2028 | ₹34 | ₹66 | ₹126 | -58% |
| NCC 2029 | ₹19 | ₹43 | ₹95 | -72% |
| NCC 2030 | ₹11 | ₹27 | ₹69 | -82% |
| NCC 2031 | ₹6 | ₹18 | ₹50 | -89% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NCC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NCC
- Trades at just 14.3× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 1.28×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹95.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 9.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 11% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹19.
NCC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NCC compounded at -37%/year with annualized volatility of 36%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹64–₹158, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NCC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NCC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NCC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NCC price target & forecast page.
NCC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NCC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
NCC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NCC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 31.7% | 3.2× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 31.7% | 3.2× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 31.7% | 3.2× |
Compare every broker on the NCC MTF page.
Which ace investors hold NCC?
Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):
NCC vs peers,sector comparison
About NCC Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
NCC Limited (NCC) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹10,020 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the NCC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NCC Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NCC analysis, FAQs
Is NCC Limited (NCC) a good buy?
On the numbers, NCC Limited (NCC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.3× earnings, ROE of 9.2%, a 11% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NCC overvalued or undervalued?
NCC trades at 14.3× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the NCC share price target for 2031?
NCC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹18, with an 80% range of ₹6–₹50 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NCC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NCC reaching ₹312 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for NCC?
Trades at just 14.3× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.28×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in NCC?
Return on equity is a soft 9.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 11% chance of finishing above today's price.