Case study

NCLIND

NCLIND

Worth a closer look1y model -15.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

NCLIND (NCLIND) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NCLIND a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

NCLIND (NCLIND) trades at ₹192,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100.

On the numbers, NCLIND (NCLIND) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100, weighing inexpensive at 6.6× earnings, ROE of 14.6%, a 30% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NCLIND fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹867 Cr
Current price
₹192
P/E ratio
6.6×
P/B ratio
0.92×
Book value
₹208
Dividend yield
1.56%
ROCE
14.5%
ROE
14.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is NCLIND overvalued? NCLIND P/E vs its sector

NCLIND's P/E of 6.6× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 1.56% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

NCLIND P/E
6.6×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
NCLIND div yield
1.56%
Peer median yield
1.65%

NCLIND share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NCLIND history (-11%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NCLIND 2027₹109₹163₹241-15%
NCLIND 2028₹78₹139₹244-28%
NCLIND 2029₹58₹118₹238-38%
NCLIND 2030₹45₹100₹227-48%
NCLIND 2031₹35₹86₹212-55%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NCLIND goes up, or doubles?

30%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
13%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
2%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹384 within 5 years

The bull case for NCLIND

  • Trades at just 6.6× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 0.92×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • A healthy 14.6% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹238.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 30% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹58.

NCLIND volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years NCLIND compounded at -11%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹109₹241, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NCLIND price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
15.0%
80% range₹109–₹241
P(price ↑)30%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
38.4%
80% range₹58–₹238
P(price ↑)19%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
55.0%
80% range₹35–₹212
P(price ↑)13%
P(price 2×)2%

NCLIND price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NCLIND simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NCLIND hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NCLIND price target & forecast page.

NCLIND Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NCLIND scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

NCLIND MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NCLIND with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
ZerodhaCHEAPEST30.1%3.3×
Dhan50.0%2.0×

Compare every broker on the NCLIND MTF page.

NCLIND vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
NCLIND (this stock)6.6×1.56%₹867 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About NCLIND: sector, index & market-cap context

NCLIND (NCLIND) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹867 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the NCLIND Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NCLIND's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NCLIND analysis, FAQs

Is NCLIND (NCLIND) a good buy?

On the numbers, NCLIND (NCLIND) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 59/100, weighing inexpensive at 6.6× earnings, ROE of 14.6%, a 30% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NCLIND overvalued or undervalued?

NCLIND trades at 6.6× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the NCLIND share price target for 2031?

NCLIND's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹86, with an 80% range of ₹35₹212 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NCLIND doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NCLIND reaching ₹384 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.

What is the bull case for NCLIND?

Trades at just 6.6× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 0.92×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. A healthy 14.6% return on equity.

What are the risks in NCLIND?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 30% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on NCLIND