NELCAST
NELCAST
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
NELCAST (NELCAST) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is NELCAST a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
NELCAST (NELCAST) trades at ₹140,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100.
On the numbers, NELCAST (NELCAST) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing premium at 25.1× earnings, ROE of 8.4%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
NELCAST fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is NELCAST overvalued? NELCAST P/E vs its sector
NELCAST's P/E of 25.1× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.50% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
NELCAST share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of NELCAST history (-5%/yr drift, 52%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NELCAST 2027 | ₹60 | ₹116 | ₹227 | -15% |
| NELCAST 2028 | ₹38 | ₹97 | ₹243 | -29% |
| NELCAST 2029 | ₹26 | ₹81 | ₹254 | -41% |
| NELCAST 2030 | ₹18 | ₹69 | ₹255 | -50% |
| NELCAST 2031 | ₹13 | ₹58 | ₹252 | -58% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability NELCAST goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for NELCAST
- NELCAST is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹254.
The bear case & risks
- At 25.1× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- Return on equity is a soft 8.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (52%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹26.
NELCAST volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years NELCAST compounded at -5%/year with annualized volatility of 52%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹60–₹227, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
NELCAST price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
NELCAST price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds NELCAST hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the NELCAST price target & forecast page.
NELCAST Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. NELCAST scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
NELCAST MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NELCAST with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 50.0% | 2.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 50.0% | 2.0× |
Compare every broker on the NELCAST MTF page.
NELCAST vs peers,sector comparison
About NELCAST: sector, index & market-cap context
NELCAST (NELCAST) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,216 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the NELCAST Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of NELCAST's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
NELCAST analysis, FAQs
Is NELCAST (NELCAST) a good buy?
On the numbers, NELCAST (NELCAST) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing premium at 25.1× earnings, ROE of 8.4%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is NELCAST overvalued or undervalued?
NELCAST trades at 25.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the NELCAST share price target for 2031?
NELCAST's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹58, with an 80% range of ₹13–₹252 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability NELCAST doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of NELCAST reaching ₹274 (2×) within 5 years is 9%.
What is the bull case for NELCAST?
NELCAST is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in NELCAST?
At 25.1× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 8.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.