Case study

NELCAST

Nelcast Limited

Tread carefully1y model -2.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

34Score

Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is NELCAST a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) trades at ₹126,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100.

On the numbers, Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100, weighing premium at 26.6× earnings, ROE of 8.4%, a 48% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

NELCAST fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,093 Cr
Current price
₹126
P/E ratio
26.6×
P/B ratio
1.84×
Book value
₹69
Dividend yield
0.56%
ROCE
11.4%
ROE
8.4%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How NELCAST ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is NELCAST overvalued? NELCAST P/E vs peers

NELCAST trades at 26.6× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

NELCAST share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of NELCAST history (7%/yr drift, 53%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
NELCAST 2027₹62₹122₹242-3%
NELCAST 2028₹46₹118₹308-6%
NELCAST 2029₹35₹115₹377-8%
NELCAST 2030₹28₹112₹446-11%
NELCAST 2031₹23₹108₹513-14%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability NELCAST goes up, or doubles?

48%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
45%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
24%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹251 within 5 years

The bull case for NELCAST

  • Nelcast Limited is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹377.

The bear case & risks

  • NELCAST's P/E of 26.6x is lower than 50% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • NELCAST's return on equity of 8.4% ranks in the 42nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹35.

NELCAST volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years NELCAST compounded at 7%/year with annualized volatility of 53%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹62-₹242, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

NELCAST price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
2.9%
80% range₹62-₹242
P(price ↑)48%
P(price 2×)9%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
8.4%
80% range₹35-₹377
P(price ↑)46%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
13.7%
80% range₹23-₹513
P(price ↑)45%
P(price 2×)24%

NELCAST price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
NELCAST simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds NELCAST hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the NELCAST price target & forecast page.

NELCAST Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. NELCAST scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

NELCAST MTF margin & leverage across 7 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy NELCAST with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 7 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Zerodha50.00%2.0×
Groww40.48%2.5×
Dhan50.00%2.0×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Pocketful50.00%2.0×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST40.22%2.5×
Share India40.42%2.5×

Compare every broker on the NELCAST MTF page.

About Nelcast Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,093 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the NELCAST Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Nelcast Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

NELCAST analysis, FAQs

Is Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) a good buy?

On the numbers, Nelcast Limited (NELCAST) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100, weighing premium at 26.6× earnings, ROE of 8.4%, a 48% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is NELCAST overvalued or undervalued?

NELCAST trades at 26.6× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the NELCAST share price target for 2031?

NELCAST's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹108, with an 80% range of ₹23-₹513 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability NELCAST doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of NELCAST reaching ₹251 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.

What is the bull case for NELCAST?

Nelcast Limited is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in NELCAST?

NELCAST's P/E of 26.6x is lower than 50% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. NELCAST's return on equity of 8.4% ranks in the 42nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on NELCAST